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X. Summary Tables

Table S–1. President's 10-Year Plan

(In billions of dollars)
  Total 2002-2011
Baseline surplus
5,644
  Social Security surplus
2,591
  Tax relief
1,620
  Additional needs, debt service, and contingencies:
    Helping Hand and Medicare modernization
153
    Additional spending and other
20
    Debt service
417
    Contingencies
842
Memorandum:
  Maximum debt retirement
2,017

Table S–2. Proposed Policy

(In billions of dollars)
  Estimate Totals
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2002-
2006		 2002-
2011
Baseline unified surplus
284
283
334
387
440
516
586
652
726
814
904
1,961
5,644
Policy changes:
  Tax package
-*
-31
-66
-99
-133
-170
-193
-209
-226
-243
-250
-499
-1,620
  Discretionary programs
-1
-7
-1
-1
-5
-2
1
-2
-3
-7
-2
-16
-30
  Helping Hand and Medicare modernization
-3
-11
-13
-15
-13
-13
-13
-16
-17
-20
-24
-64
-153
  Other mandatory initiatives and offsets
..........
-2
-2
7
2
4
-1
-*
*
*
*
9
9
  Debt service
-*
-2
-6
-12
-19
-28
-39
-53
-68
-86
-105
-66
-417
Total, policy changes
-3
-52
-88
-120
-167
-209
-245
-280
-314
-355
-380
-636
-2,210
Debt reduction and reserve for contingencies 1
281
231
246
268
273
307
341
372
412
459
524
1,325
3,433
  * $500 million or less.
  1 The actual amount of annual debt retirement will vary depending upon the availability of eligible redeemable debt, and the use, if any, of the contingency reserve.

Table S–3. Budget Summary 1

(In billions of dollars)
  Estimate Total
2002-
2011
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Outlays:
  Discretionary
649
692
708
727
751
769
787
811
834
861
880
7,819
  Mandatory:
    Social Security
430
451
474
498
524
553
584
618
656
698
744
5,800
    Medicare
216
226
239
252
279
292
314
336
358
384
419
3,100
    Medicaid
129
142
153
166
181
196
214
232
253
275
298
2,109
    Other mandatory
226
259
263
267
285
284
296
312
323
336
349
2,973
  Subtotal, mandatory
1,001
1,079
1,128
1,183
1,269
1,325
1,407
1,498
1,591
1,693
1,810
13,982
  Net interest
206
188
175
161
144
127
108
90
69
45
20
1,127
Total outlays
1,856
1,959
2,012
2,071
2,164
2,221
2,302
2,398
2,493
2,600
2,709
22,929
Receipts
2,137
2,190
2,258
2,339
2,436
2,528
2,643
2,770
2,905
3,059
3,233
26,362
  Unified surplus
281
231
246
268
273
307
341
372
412
459
524
3,433
  On-budget surplus/contingency
124
60
53
57
36
55
71
84
109
136
181
842
  Off-budget surplus
157
171
193
211
237
252
270
287
303
323
343
2,591
  1 The actual amount of annual debt retirement will vary depending upon the availability of eligible redeemable debt, and the use, if any, of the contingency reserve.

Table S–4. Bridge to 2002 Proposed Discretionary Spending

(Budget authority, dollar amounts in billions)
2001 Enacted635.0
Department of Defense:
  Additions:
    Campaign initiatives4.4
    Pay, inflation, health, and other9.8
Non-Department of Defense:
  Additions:
    Campaign initiatives10.4
    Pay and programmatic increases9.6
    National Emergency Reserve5.6
    Technical adjustments (contract renewals, new advances, etc.)6.3
  Offsets: 1
    Non-repetition of earmarked funding-4.3
    Non-repetition of one-time funding-4.1
    Program decreases-12.1
2002 Total Discretionary660.7
2002 Discretionary Baseline660.7
Increase over 2001 Enacted25.7
Percentage Increase4.0%
1 The final distribution of offsets has yet to be determined.

Table S–5. Discretionary Policy Initiatives

(Budget authority in billions of dollars)
  2002 Estimate Totals
2002–2006 2002–2011
Strengthen and Reform Education
3.5
19.1
41.4
Revitalize National Defense
4.4
39.6
95.4
Champion Compassionate Conservatism
0.7
4.8
10.8
Assist Americans with Disabilities
0.3
1.4
3.0
Combat Crime and Drug Abuse
1.3
6.1
12.1
Create a Comprehensive Energy Policy and Protect the Environment
1.4
6.5
12.8
Strengthen Families
0.2
1.3
2.5
Invest in Health Care
2.9
33.7
78.8
Reform the Immigration System
0.2
1.2
2.1
Promote Volunteerism
*
0.5
1.2
  Total, Discretionary Initiatives
14.8
114.2
260.1
  * $50 million or less

Table S–6. Discretionary Budget Authority by Agency

(Dollar amounts in billions)
Agency Actual Estimate Change:
2001 to 2002		 Average Growth:
1998 to 2002
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Agriculture
15.8
16.5
17.1
19.4
17.9
-1.6
3.1%
Commerce 1
4.2
5.4
8.7
5.1
4.8
-0.4
3.3%
Defense
259.8
274.6
287.3
296.3
310.5
14.2
4.6%
Education
29.8
28.8
29.4
39.9
44.5
4.6
10.6%
Energy
16.8
17.9
17.8
19.7
19.0
-0.7
3.1%
Health and Human Services
37.1
41.5
45.5
53.9
56.7
2.8
11.2%
Housing and Urban Development 2
20.1
22.5
21.2
28.5
30.4
1.9
10.9%
Interior
8.1
8.0
8.5
10.2
9.8
-0.4
5.0%
International Affairs Programs 3
18.2
22.3
22.7
21.9
23.1
1.2
6.2%
Justice
17.6
18.4
18.8
20.9
19.9
-1.0
3.1%
Labor
10.7
11.0
8.8
11.9
11.3
-0.6
1.3%
Transportation
15.0
12.9
14.5
18.4
16.3
-2.1
2.0%
Treasury
11.5
12.8
12.5
14.0
14.7
0.7
6.4%
Veterans Affairs
18.9
19.2
20.9
22.4
23.4
1.0
5.5%
Corps of Engineers
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.5
3.9
-0.6
-1.7%
Environmental Protection Agency
7.4
7.6
7.6
7.8
7.3
-0.5
-0.2%
Federal Emergency Management Agency
2.4
2.9
3.9
2.4
2.0
-0.5
-5.4%
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
13.6
13.7
13.6
14.3
14.5
0.3
1.5%
National Science Foundation
3.4
3.7
3.9
4.4
4.5
0.1
6.8%
Small Business Administration
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.3
0.5
0.3
-6.9%
Social Security Administration
5.5
5.5
5.6
6.0
6.4
0.3
3.9%
Legal Services Corporation
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.0
3.8%
National Endowment for the Arts
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
1.7%
National Endowment for the Humanities
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
2.2%
Smithsonian Institution
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.0
5.3%
Other Agencies
10.2
11.4
10.4
11.7
12.8
1.1
5.8%
National Emergency Reserve
..........
..........
..........
..........
5.6
5.6
..........
  Total
531.9
562.2
584.4
635.0
660.7
25.6
5.6%
  1 2000 Commerce data includes funding for Census 2000.
  2 1998 and 1999 have been adjusted for reclassification of Federal Housing Administration receipts.
  3 International Affairs Program totals do not include P.L. 480 Title II food aid, which is included in the totals for Agriculture; 1999 data is also adjusted to remove $18.2 billion in one-time funding for the International Monetary Fund.

Table S–7. Proposed Discretionary Spending Limits

(In billions of dollars)
  Estimate
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Original Balanced Budget Act Limits:
   Budget authority
542.0
552.8
1.9
2.1
2.2
2.4
   Outlays
595.8
594.7
35.9
2.0
2.2
2.4
Spending in excess of Original Caps:
   Budget authority
93.0
107.9
..........
..........
..........
..........
   Outlays
53.3
97.0
..........
..........
..........
..........
Actual and Proposed Discretionary Spending Limits: 1
   Budget authority
635.0
660.7
678.6
697.4
716.8
736.9
   Outlays
649.1
691.7
708.4
726.9
750.8
768.6
Proposed Spending Limits by Category:
  Conservation Category
     Budget authority
..........
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
     Outlays
..........
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.6
  Highway Category
     Budget authority
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
     Outlays
..........
28.5
30.4
..........
..........
..........
  Mass Transit Category
     Budget authority
..........
1.3
1.4
..........
..........
..........
     Outlays
..........
5.3
5.5
..........
..........
..........
  Other Discretionary Category
     Budget authority
..........
657.8
675.6
695.9
715.2
735.3
     Outlays
..........
656.6
671.1
725.4
749.3
767.0
  Total, Proposed Discretionary Spending Limits:
     Budget authority
..........
660.7
678.6
697.4
716.8
736.9
     Outlays
..........
691.7
708.4
726.9
750.8
768.6
  1 Data for 2001 is a current estimate and is not a proposed discretionary spending limit.

Table S–8. Mandatory Proposals

(In millions of dollars)
  2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Totals
2002–2006 2002–2011
Immediate Helping Hand Prescription Drug Plan and Medicare Reform
2,500
11,200
12,900
14,800
12,500
12,800
13,400
15,500
16,700
19,700
23,500
64,200
153,000
Charity and other initiatives:
   Education:
     Expand Teacher Loan Forgiveness
..........
11
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
7
7
32
64
   HHS:
     Child Welfare Preventative Services
..........
30
158
192
196
200
200
200
200
200
200
776
1,776
     Education and Training for Older Foster Children
..........
9
46
58
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
233
533
     Charity State Tax Credit, TANF outlays
..........
..........
400
300
150
..........
..........
-200
-200
-200
-250
850
..........
   Treasury:
    Tax credits
..........
81
2,129
1,674
2,619
2,987
3,424
3,423
3,385
3,342
3,302
9,490
26,366
       Total, other initiatives
..........
131
2,738
2,229
3,030
3,253
3,690
3,489
3,451
3,409
3,319
11,381
28,739
Offsets:
   Agriculture:
     FCIC: Reduce reimbursement rate from 24.5% to 20%
..........
-61
-76
-81
-84
-90
-96
-101
-106
-119
-126
-392
-940
     Long-term recreation fee program with four-year reauthorization
..........
..........
-25
-13
-2
-2
28
13
1
..........
..........
-42
..........
   Energy:
     ANWR, lease bonuses
..........
..........
..........
-1,200
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
-1,200
-1,200
   HHS:
     Medicaid savings proposals
..........
-606
-1,071
-1,450
-1,844
-1,906
-1,965
-2,024
-2,098
-2,170
-2,242
-6,876
-17,374
   Interior:
     Use recreation fees to reduce NPS backlog (NPS/FWS/BLM)
..........
..........
-39
-2
49
80
134
92
44
..........
..........
88
358
ANWR, lease bonuses:
State of Alaska's share:
Receipts
..........
..........
..........
-1,201
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1,203
-1,208
Expenditure
..........
..........
..........
1,201
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1,203
1,208
       Federal share
..........
..........
..........
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-3
-8
   Veterans Affairs:
OBRA Extenders:
       IRS income verification on means tested veterans and survivors benefits
..........
..........
..........
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-18
-48
       Round-down disability benefits to nearest dollar after COLA
..........
..........
-15
-37
-60
-85
-107
-133
-163
-188
-208
-197
-996
       Limit VA pensions to Medicaid recipients in nursing homes (includes Medicaid offsets)
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
-127
-138
-149
..........
-414
       Continue current housing loan fees
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
-275
-280
-286
..........
-841
     Eliminate "Vendee" loan program
..........
19
-9
-13
-21
-26
-29
-34
-38
-36
-41
-50
-228
   Army Corps of Engineers:
     Recreation user fee increase
..........
-10
-5
-5
-5
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
-25
-25
   FCC:
    Shift spectrum auction deadlines and promote clearing
..........
2,600
1,000
-5,100
-2,000
-4,000
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
-7,500
-7,500
     Analog spectrum lease fee
..........
-198
-200
-200
-200
-200
-175
-150
-75
-25
..........
-998
-1,423
   FDIC:
State Bank Examination fees:
       Reduction in FDIC outlays
..........
-92
-97
-101
-106
-112
-118
-123
-129
-136
-143
-508
-1,157
       Additional governmental receipts (net of income offsets)
..........
-70
-74
-76
-80
-84
-88
-92
-96
-101
-105
-384
-866
   FEMA:
     Phase out subsidized premiums for non-primary residences in the flood insurance program
..........
-12
-40
-92
-194
-410
-415
-419
-423
-423
-423
-748
-2,851
     Reform flood insurance program for repetitive loss properties that experience chronic flooding
..........
-32
-65
-65
-65
-65
-65
-65
-65
-65
-65
-292
-617
   OPM:
     Extend Higher Agency Contributions to the Retirement Fund
..........
..........
-315
-372
-326
-286
-241
-191
-137
-76
-22
-1,299
-1,966
       Total, offsets
..........
1,538
-1,031
-8,814
-4,945
-7,193
-3,144
-3,234
-3,694
-3,764
-3,817
-20,444
-38,096
Total, mandatory proposals
2,500
12,869
14,607
8,215
10,585
8,860
13,946
15,755
16,457
19,345
23,002
55,136
143,641
   Outlays
2,500
12,939
14,681
8,291
10,665
8,944
14,034
15,847
16,553
19,446
23,107
55,520
144,507
   Revenues (net of income offsets)
..........
-70
-74
-76
-80
-84
-88
-92
-96
-101
-105
-384
-866

Table S–9. Effect of Proposals on Receipts

(In millions of dollars)
  Estimate Totals
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2002–2006 2002–2011
President's Tax Plan presented to Congress on February 8th:
  Increase the child tax credit 1
..........
-1,238
-7,506
-11,455
-16,347
-20,963
-25,296
-26,277
-27,098
-27,876
-28,602
-57,509
-192,658
  Create new 10-percent bracket
..........
-5,678
-13,847
-21,932
-29,849
-37,407
-39,734
-40,281
-40,602
-40,685
-40,603
-108,713
-310,618
  Reduce individual income tax rates
..........
-11,793
-21,047
-33,493
-42,306
-57,299
-63,741
-65,454
-67,020
-68,550
-69,963
-165,938
-500,666
  Reduce the marriage penalty
..........
-1,423
-4,801
-7,700
-10,243
-12,549
-13,983
-14,501
-15,008
-15,509
-16,033
-36,716
-111,750
  Provide charitable deduction for nonitemizers
..........
-482
-1,690
-2,963
-4,448
-6,065
-6,988
-7,087
-7,306
-7,500
-7,642
-15,648
-52,171
  Permit tax-free and penalty-free withdrawals from IRAs for charitable contributions
..........
-53
-181
-195
-210
-225
-241
-258
-277
-299
-322
-864
-2,261
  Raise the cap on corporate charitable contributions
..........
-85
-136
-136
-143
-149
-159
-169
-178
-202
-222
-649
-1,579
  Increase and expand education savings accounts
..........
-3
-25
-88
-204
-373
-593
-829
-1,037
-1,206
-1,287
-693
-5,645
  Permanently extend the R&E tax credit
..........
..........
..........
-1,056
-3,431
-5,414
-6,542
-7,388
-8,020
-8,567
-9,158
-9,901
-49,576
  Phase out death tax
-169
-6,008
-10,534
-11,998
-14,804
-16,840
-20,682
-30,477
-42,651
-54,721
-57,872
-60,184
-266,587
    Total, President's Tax Plan presented to Congress on February 8th 1
-169
-26,763
-59,767
-91,016
-121,985
-157,284
-177,959
-192,721
-209,197
-225,115
-231,704
-456,815
-1,493,511
Additional tax incentives 1 2
-14
-2,246
-5,183
-7,995
-11,113
-12,579
-14,758
-15,985
-16,986
-17,835
-18,567
-39,116
-123,247
One-year extension of provisions expiring in 2001 2
..........
-1,614
-1,356
-169
-93
-65
-37
-21
-18
-18
-18
-3,297
-3,409
  Tax reduction 1 2
-183
-30,623
-66,306
-99,180
-133,191
-169,928
-192,754
-208,727
-226,201
-242,968
-250,289
-499,228
-1,620,167
  1 The proposal has both receipt and outlay effects. Only the receipt effect is shown here; the outlay effect is shown in Table S–8.
  2 Net of income offsets.

Table S–10. Budget Authority Totals by Function

(In billions of dollars)
Function 2000  Actual  Estimate
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
National defense 1
304.1
310.6
324.8
333.2
342.2
351.8
361.6
International affairs
22.6
18.6
23.0
22.9
23.2
23.9
24.9
General science, space, and technology
19.3
20.9
22.2
22.6
23.1
23.6
24.3
Energy
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
-0.3
-0.6
-0.5
-0.3
Natural resources and environment
25.0
28.8
26.6
26.7
27.5
27.7
27.7
Agriculture
33.7
29.5
15.8
14.1
14.1
14.4
14.9
Commerce and housing credit
13.6
-8.8
8.5
7.7
6.0
6.1
6.4
  On-Budget
(9.9)
(-13.6)
(5.9)
(5.8)
(5.1)
(5.2)
(5.4)
  Off-Budget
(3.7)
(4.8)
(2.5)
(1.9)
(0.9)
(0.9)
(1.0)
Transportation
55.4
61.6
61.2
63.3
65.0
66.7
68.5
Community and regional development
12.8
10.4
10.0
10.1
10.3
10.5
10.9
Education, training, employment, and social services
55.2
70.3
80.0
80.5
82.6
85.5
88.6
Health
161.5
181.4
204.9
229.8
246.4
254.4
268.8
Medicare
200.6
219.0
229.9
242.2
255.5
282.8
296.2
Income security
242.0
262.2
274.5
284.9
296.8
309.4
318.2
Social security
412.0
435.4
456.4
479.0
503.7
530.3
559.3
  On-Budget
(13.3)
(12.1)
(13.6)
(14.5)
(15.5)
(16.3)
(17.3)
  Off-Budget
(398.8)
(423.2)
(442.8)
(464.5)
(488.3)
(514.0)
(542.0)
Veterans benefits and services
45.5
47.6
51.6
53.2
55.3
57.4
59.5
Administration of justice
26.7
30.0
30.9
31.5
33.3
34.3
35.3
General government
13.5
16.3
16.6
16.6
18.3
17.4
17.9
Net interest
223.2
206.5
188.3
175.3
161.2
144.2
126.6
  On-Budget
(283.0)
(275.4)
(264.4)
(260.7)
(257.1)
(251.5)
(246.7)
  Off-Budget
(-59.8)
(-68.9)
(-76.1)
(-85.4)
(-95.9)
(-107.3)
(-120.1)
Allowances
..........
..........
6.0
5.7
6.3
6.4
6.6
Undistributed offsetting receipts
-42.6
-48.0
-49.0
-60.2
-70.5
-58.7
-62.2
  On-Budget
-34.9
-39.8
-40.5
-51.1
-60.6
-48.0
-50.8
  Off-Budget
-7.6
-8.3
-8.5
-9.2
-9.9
-10.7
-11.4
Total
1,823.1
1,891.5
1,981.6
2,038.7
2,099.6
2,187.7
2,253.5
  On-Budget
(1,488.1)
(1,540.6)
(1,620.8)
(1,666.8)
(1,716.2)
(1,791.0)
(1,842.1)
  Off-Budget
(335.0)
(350.9)
(360.7)
(371.9)
(383.4)
(396.8)
(411.4)
  1 Estimates for 2003–2006 reflect inflated 2002 levels, not a policy judgment.

Table S–11. Outlay Totals by Function

(In billions of dollars)
Function 2000  Actual  Estimate
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
National defense 1
294.5
299.1
318.9
321.6
332.6
346.8
353.8
International affairs
17.2
17.5
21.1
21.0
21.1
21.2
22.0
General science, space, and technology
18.6
19.7
21.2
22.0
22.7
23.2
23.8
Energy
-1.1
-0.6
-0.3
-0.1
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
Natural resources and environment
25.0
27.6
27.8
27.5
27.8
28.2
28.6
Agriculture
36.6
26.1
18.6
14.9
13.9
14.0
14.5
Commerce and housing credit
3.2
-0.7
6.9
4.6
3.5
3.4
2.1
  On-Budget
(1.2)
(-3.3)
(3.8)
(5.1)
(4.2)
(4.7)
(4.0)
  Off-Budget
(2.0)
(2.6)
(3.1)
(-0.5)
(-0.7)
(-1.3)
(-1.8)
Transportation
46.9
51.1
54.7
56.2
58.5
61.0
63.0
Community and regional development
10.6
10.7
11.3
11.1
10.6
10.3
9.8
Education, training, employment, and social services
59.3
64.7
76.2
80.2
81.1
83.3
86.1
Health
154.5
175.5
201.3
224.8
243.6
251.1
265.4
Medicare
197.1
219.3
229.8
241.9
255.7
282.6
295.9
Income security
247.9
262.9
275.7
285.7
295.7
308.6
317.0
Social security
409.4
433.6
454.7
477.1
501.6
528.0
556.8
  On-Budget
(13.3)
(12.1)
(13.6)
(14.5)
(15.5)
(16.3)
(17.3)
  Off-Budget
(396.2)
(421.5)
(441.1)
(462.6)
(486.1)
(511.7)
(539.5)
Veterans benefits and services
47.1
45.3
51.1
52.8
55.0
59.8
59.2
Administration of justice
27.8
29.1
31.6
34.4
34.3
34.0
34.9
General government
13.4
17.0
16.5
16.6
18.3
17.3
17.6
Net interest
223.2
206.5
188.3
175.3
161.2
144.2
126.6
  On-Budget
(283.0)
(275.4)
(264.4)
(260.7)
(257.1)
(251.5)
(246.7)
  Off-Budget
(-59.8)
(-68.9)
(-76.1)
(-85.4)
(-95.9)
(-107.3)
(-120.1)
Allowances
..........
..........
2.7
4.3
5.0
6.0
6.3
Undistributed offsetting receipts
-42.6
-48.0
-49.0
-60.2
-70.5
-58.7
-62.2
  On-Budget
-34.9
-39.8
-40.5
-51.1
-60.6
-48.0
-50.8
  Off-Budget
-7.6
-8.3
-8.5
-9.2
-9.9
-10.7
-11.4
Total
1,789.0
1,856.3
1,959.3
2,011.6
2,071.0
2,163.6
2,220.6
  On-Budget
(1,458.2)
(1,509.4)
(1,599.8)
(1,644.1)
(1,691.4)
(1,771.3)
(1,814.5)
  Off-Budget
(330.8)
(346.9)
(359.5)
(367.5)
(379.7)
(392.3)
(406.1)
  1 Estimates for 2003–2006 reflect inflated 2002 levels, not a policy judgment.

Table S–12. Discretionary Budget Authority by Function

(In billions of dollars)
Function 2000  Actual  Estimate
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
National defense 1
300.8
311.3
324.9
333.4
342.8
352.4
362.3
International affairs
23.5
22.7
23.9
23.8
24.5
25.2
25.9
General science, space, and technology
19.2
20.8
22.0
22.5
23.1
23.6
24.3
Energy
2.7
3.1
2.8
2.7
3.0
3.1
3.2
Natural resources and environment
24.6
28.8
26.4
26.5
27.2
27.4
27.4
Agriculture
4.7
5.1
4.8
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.5
Commerce and housing credit
5.2
0.7
-0.3
-0.2
-0.5
-0.6
-0.6
Transportation
15.2
19.0
15.9
16.3
16.8
17.2
17.7
Community and regional development
13.8
11.0
10.1
10.4
10.6
10.9
11.2
Education, training, employment, and social services
44.4
61.2
65.3
65.6
67.6
69.5
71.5
Health
33.8
38.9
41.0
45.5
47.0
48.5
50.0
Medicare
3.0
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.8
Income security
29.9
39.5
42.8
44.5
46.2
48.0
49.4
Social security
3.2
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
  On-Budget
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
  Off-Budget
(3.2)
(3.4)
(3.5)
(3.5)
(3.6)
(3.7)
(3.8)
Veterans benefits and services
20.9
22.5
23.5
23.4
24.1
24.8
25.5
Administration of justice
27.1
29.9
29.7
31.6
31.4
32.3
33.3
General government
12.4
14.0
14.8
14.8
15.2
15.6
16.0
Allowances
..........
..........
6.0
5.7
6.3
6.4
6.6
Total
584.4
635.0
660.7
678.6
697.4
716.8
736.9
  On-Budget
(581.2)
(631.6)
(657.2)
(675.1)
(693.8)
(713.1)
(733.1)
  Off-Budget
(3.2)
(3.4)
(3.5)
(3.5)
(3.6)
(3.7)
(3.8)
  * $50 million or less.
  1 Estimates for 2003–2006 reflect inflated 2002 levels, not a policy judgment.

Table S–13. Discretionary Outlays by Function

(In billions of dollars)
Function 2000  Actual  Estimate
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
National defense 1
295.0
299.6
319.1
321.8
333.1
347.4
354.4
International affairs
21.3
24.1
24.5
24.4
24.6
24.6
25.3
General science, space, and technology
18.6
19.6
21.1
21.9
22.6
23.2
23.8
Energy
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.1
Natural resources and environment
25.0
27.7
27.8
27.4
27.5
28.0
28.4
Agriculture
4.7
5.5
5.5
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.5
Commerce and housing credit
4.5
1.8
0.3
-*
-0.4
-0.6
-0.6
Transportation
44.8
48.9
52.9
54.2
56.6
59.1
61.1
Community and regional development
11.4
11.4
11.7
11.8
11.4
11.3
11.1
Education, training, employment, and social services
48.9
55.5
61.8
65.4
66.0
67.6
69.6
Health
30.0
34.0
38.6
42.2
45.4
47.2
48.7
Medicare
3.0
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
Income security
41.3
45.4
46.9
47.7
48.3
49.1
50.2
Social security
3.4
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
  On-Budget
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
  Off-Budget
(3.4)
(3.6)
(3.5)
(3.5)
(3.6)
(3.7)
(3.8)
Veterans benefits and services
20.8
22.3
23.4
23.4
24.1
24.8
25.5
Administration of justice
26.8
28.9
30.9
34.0
32.3
32.2
33.0
General government
12.4
14.5
14.7
14.8
15.0
15.4
15.8
Allowances
..........
..........
2.7
4.3
5.0
6.0
6.3
Total
614.8
649.1
691.7
708.4
726.9
750.8
768.6
  On-Budget
(611.4)
(645.5)
(688.2)
(704.9)
(723.3)
(747.1)
(764.8)
  Off-Budget
(3.4)
(3.6)
(3.5)
(3.5)
(3.6)
(3.7)
(3.8)
  * $50 million or less.
  1 Estimates for 2003–2006 reflect inflated 2002 levels, not a policy judgment.

Table S–14 Comparison of Economic Assumptions

(Calendar years)
  Projection Average
2002-2011
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Real GDP: 1
  February Blue Chip
2.1
3.5
3.2
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.4
  CBO January
2.4
3.4
3.3
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.1
  2002 Budget
2.4
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.2
GDP Price Index: 1
  February Blue Chip
2.1
1.9
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
  CBO January
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
  2002 Budget
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
Consumer Price Index: 1
  February Blue Chip
2.6
2.4
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
  CBO January
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.6
  2002 Budget
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
Unemployment rate: 2
  February Blue Chip
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
  CBO January
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.2
4.9
  2002 Budget
4.4
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
Interest rates: 2
  91-day Treasury bills:
    February Blue Chip
4.8
4.9
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
    CBO January
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
    2002 Budget
5.3
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.3
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.2
  10-year Treasury notes:
    February Blue Chip
5.2
5.5
5.9
5.9
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
5.9
    CBO January
4.9
5.3
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.7
    2002 Budget
5.4
5.6
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.7
  1 Year-over-year percent change; real GDP and its price index are chain-weighted; CPI is all-urban.
   The Blue Chip's out-year forecast (2003–2011) is from its October 2000 long-run extension.
  2 Annual averages, percent.

Table S–15. Baseline Category Totals

(In billions of dollars)
  Estimate Totals
2002-2011
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Outlays:
  Discretionary:
    Defense function
300
311
319
330
341
351
360
370
381
392
403
3,557
    Nondefense
349
373
388
396
405
416
427
439
450
462
475
4,232
      Subtotal, discretionary
649
685
707
726
746
766
788
809
831
854
878
7,789
  Mandatory:
    Social Security
430
451
474
498
524
553
584
618
656
698
744
5,800
    Medicare
216
226
239
252
271
279
301
320
342
365
396
2,990
    Medicaid
129
143
154
167
182
198
216
234
254
276
300
2,125
    Other mandatory
223
246
247
257
281
286
293
309
322
334
348
2,923
      Subtotal, mandatory
998
1,066
1,113
1,175
1,258
1,317
1,393
1,482
1,574
1,674
1,787
13,839
  Net interest:
    Interest earnings.
..........
..........
..........
..........
-3
-14
-32
-56
-85
-119
-159
-468
    Other
206
187
170
150
128
113
101
92
85
78
74
1,177
      Subtotal, net interest
206
187
170
150
125
99
69
36
*
-40
-85
710
Total outlays
1,853
1,938
1,990
2,050
2,129
2,182
2,250
2,327
2,405
2,487
2,579
22,338
Receipts
2,137
2,221
2,324
2,438
2,569
2,698
2,836
2,979
3,131
3,302
3,483
27,981
  Unified surplus
284
283
334
387
440
516
586
652
726
814
904
5,644
  On-budget surplus
127
112
141
176
203
263
315
363
422
490
560
3,045
  Off-budget surplus
157
171
194
211
237
253
272
289
304
324
344
2,599
  * $500 million or less.
  Note: Baseline assumes earnings on cash balances, which represent the return on investing excess Treasury cash in the private sector. The size of the balances that would be invested would vastly overwhelm existing institutional arrangements for investing Treasury operating balances, raising both operational and policy issues.

Table S–16. Federal Government Financing and Debt

(In billions of dollars)
  Actual 2000 Estimate
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Financing:
  Unified budget surplus
236
281
231
246
268
273
307
341
372
412
459
524
    On-budget surplus/reserve for contingencies 1
86
124
60
53
57
36
55
71
84
109
136
181
    Off-budget surplus
150
157
171
193
211
237
252
270
287
303
323
343
  Means of financing other than borrowing from the public:
    Premiums paid (-) on buybacks of Treasury securities 2
-6
-10
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
Changes in: 3
      Treasury operating cash balance
4
3
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
      Checks outstanding, deposit funds, etc. 4
3
-*
-1
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
    Seigniorage on coins
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Less: Net financing disbursements:
      Direct loan financing accounts
-22
-39
-4
-17
-18
-17
-16
-16
-16
-16
-16
-15
      Guaranteed loan financing accounts
4
-1
-1
1
-*
-*
1
1
1
1
1
1
Total, means of financing other than borrowing from the public
-13
-45
-4
-15
-16
-15
-14
-13
-13
-13
-13
-13
Total, amount available to repay debt held by the public
223
236
227
232
252
257
294
328
359
399
446
511
  Change in debt held by the public: 5 6
    Change in debt held by the public (gross)
-223
-236
-227
-232
-252
-257
-294
-328
-181
-125
-71
-50
    Less change in excess balances
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
-178
-274
-375
-461
      Change in debt held by the public (net)
-223
-236
-227
-232
-252
-257
-294
-328
-359
-399
-446
-511
Debt Subject to Statutory Limitation, End of Year:
  Debt issued by Treasury
5,601
5,610
5,640
5,697
5,752
5,822
5,878
5,918
6,120
6,396
6,750
7,139
  Adjustment for Treasury debt not subject to limitation and agency debt subject to limitation 7
-15
-15
-15
-15
-15
-15
-15
-15
-15
-15
-15
-15
  Adjustment for discount and premium 8
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
    Total, debt subject to statutory limitation 9
5,592
5,600
5,630
5,687
5,743
5,813
5,868
5,908
6,110
6,386
6,740
7,129
Debt Outstanding, End of Year:
  Gross Federal debt: 10
    Debt issued by Treasury
5,601
5,610
5,640
5,697
5,752
5,822
5,878
5,918
6,120
6,396
6,750
7,139
    Debt issued by other agencies
28
27
27
26
25
24
23
21
21
21
20
20
      Total, gross Federal debt
5,629
5,637
5,666
5,723
5,777
5,846
5,901
5,939
6,141
6,417
6,770
7,159
Held by:
  Debt securities held as assets by Government accounts
2,219
2,463
2,719
3,007
3,314
3,640
3,988
4,355
4,737
5,138
5,562
6,001
  Debt securities held as assets by the public: 6
    Debt held by the public (gross)
3,410
3,174
2,947
2,715
2,463
2,206
1,912
1,585
1,404
1,279
1,208
1,158
    Less excess balances
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
-178
-452
-827
-1,288
      Debt held by the public (net) 11
3,410
3,174
2,947
2,715
2,463
2,206
1,912
1,585
1,226
827
381
-130
   
  * $500 million or less.
  1 The actual amount of annual debt retirement will vary depending upon the availability of eligible redeemable debt, and the use, if any, of the contingency reserve.
  2 This table includes estimates for Treasury buybacks of outstanding securities only through 2001. These estimates assume that Treasury will buy back $35 billion (face value) of securities in 2001. The premiums paid on buybacks are based on experience to date and the interest rates in the economic assumptions.
  3 A decrease in the Treasury operating cash balance (which is an asset) would be a means of financing a deficit and therefore has a positive sign. An increase in checks outstanding or deposit fund balances (which are liabilities) would also be a means of financing a deficit and therefore would also have a positive sign.
  4 Besides checks outstanding and deposit funds, includes accrued interest payable on Treasury debt, miscellaneous liability accounts, allocations of special drawing rights, and, as an offset, cash and monetary assets other than the Treasury operating cash balance, miscellaneous asset accounts, and profit on sale of gold.
  5 Indian tribal funds that are owned by the Indian tribes and held and managed in a fiduciary capacity by the Government on the tribes' behalf were reclassified from trust funds to deposit funds as of October 1, 1999. Their holdings of Treasury securities were accordingly reclassified from debt held by Government accounts to debt held by the public, which affected the "change in debt held by the public" without affecting borrowing or the repayment of debt.
  6 The amount of the unified budget surplus that is available to repay debt held by the public is estimated to be more than the amount of debt that is available to be redeemed in 2008 and subsequent years. The difference is assumed to be held as "excess balances." ("Excess" means in excess of the amounts held for operational and programmatic purposes.) The "debt held by the public (gross)" is the amount of Federal debt securities held by the public. The "debt held by the public (net)" is the "debt held by the public (gross)" less the "excess balances."
  7 Consists primarily of Federal Financing Bank debt.
  8 Consists of unamortized discount (less premium) on public issues of Treasury notes and bonds (other than zero-coupon bonds) and unrealized discount on Government account series securities.
  9 The statutory debt limit is $5,950 billion.
  10 Treasury securities held by the public and zero-coupon bonds held by Government accounts are almost entirely measured at sales price plus amortized discount or less amortized premium. Agency debt is almost entirely measured at face value. Treasury securities in the Government account series are measured at face value less unrealized discount (if any).
  11 At the end of 2000, the Federal Reserve Banks held $511 billion of Federal securities and the rest of the public held $2,899 billion. Debt held by the Federal Reserve Banks is not estimated for future years.

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