Detailed Information on the
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration: Weather and Related Programs Assessment

Investing in technology to improve severe weather warning lead times. Investments in technology include: NWS Telecommunications Gateway Replacement, deployment of 100 NEXRAD Open Radar Data Acquisition systems, AWIPS Linux Phase II Upgrades, Expanding the National Digital Forecast Database, deployment of nine Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) buoys, deployment of 12 additional Radiosonde Replacement Systems, ASOS Product Improvements, modernization of 50 Cooperative Weather Observer sites, and development of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast modeling system.

Instituting quarterly reporting on progress of satellite programs.

Measure: Improve tornado warning lead time (minutes)

Explanation:Lead time is the difference between the time the warning was issued and the time the tornado affected the warned area. This measure reflects the average lead time for all tornado occurrences throughout the year.

Measure: Reduce 48 hour hurricane track forecast errors (nautical miles)

Explanation:This measure is the difference between the actual location of hurricane landfall and the location projected 48 hours in advance.

Measure: Lead time for warnings for flash floods in minutes

Explanation:Lead time in minues for flash flood warnings, which is the difference between the time the warning was issued and the time the flash flood affected the eara for which the warning was issued.

Measure: Increased number of StormReady/TsunamiReady communities

Explanation:This performance measure tracks the number of new communities (as a cumulative number) that are recognized StormReady and TsunamiReady each year. Local NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) work with communities, including public officials and emergency managers, to complete the application and review process.

Measure: Accuracy (%) of Day 1 precipitation forecasts

Explanation:This measure tracks the ability of weather forecasters to predict accurately the occurrence of one inch or more of precipitation (rain or the water equivalent of melted snow or ice pellets) twenty-four hours in advance across the continguous U.S.

Measure: Accuracy for warnings for tornadoes (percentage)

Explanation:

Measure: Accuracy for warnings for flash floods (percentage)

Explanation:

Measure: Percentage of river and lake sites with advanced hydrologic prediction capability.

Explanation:Supported Outcomes: Improve Ecosystem Management; Improve Strategic Flood and Drought Decisions; Increase Economic Benefits from Water Forecasts and Information;

Measure: Skill score of the accuracy of radiation storm warnings

Explanation:This measure indicates the accuracy of radiation storm warnings based on increases in the solar particle radiation level, measured on the NOAA GOES satellite, above the threshold of 10 particle flux units and expressed by the skill score. The skill score compares forecasts produced by the Space Environment Center to forecasts producted by short-term (30-day) climatology. The skill score is based on a range of -1 (zero correct forecasts), to +1 (all correct forecasts), with 0 being given if either no events were forecasted or no events were observed.

Measure: % of space weather alerts delivered within 10 minutes of event onset

Explanation:This measure indicates the percentage of customers notified of significant space weather storms within 10 minutes of the storm crossing the threshold for issueing an alert. The percentage is based on the number of customers in the database at the time of the alert.

Measure: Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) workstation performance rating (seconds). AWIPS workstations are used in all 122 local forecasting offices of the National Weather Service.

Explanation:This measures the number of seconds to load model, satellite, radar, and observational data onto the AWIPS workstations. The faster the data are displayed on the AWIPS workstation, the faster a forecaster can issue a forecast or warning. The AWIPS performance rating fluctuates depending on the age of the workstation, the amount of software installed on the computer, and the workstation's processor speed.

Measure: Decrease the amount of time (in minutes) between the creation of Non-Weather Emergency Messages to handoff for NWS dissemination (All-Hazards Warning Collection System)

Explanation:Through agreements with local and state governments, the NWS accepts emergency messages of non-weather related nature, such as chemical spills/releases, AMBER alerts, and radiological events, and informs/warns the public of these events through the various existing NWS dissemination systems (e.g. NOAA Weather Radio). The 2005 time from the creation of the message to dissemination is 7 minutes. The goal by FY06 is to reduce this time to 2 minutes with the use of the automated HazCollect system. This will provide the public with more opportunities to receive alerts and more time to react to these warnings.

Measure: NOAA managed satellite data accurately processed and distributed within targeted time

Explanation:Ensures accurate and timely data to meet customer needs.

Measure: POES Timeliness

Explanation:Data delivered within established threshold (180 minutes)

Measure: Non-NOAA satellite data accurately processed and distributed within targeted time

Explanation:

Measure: Increased number of validated satellite research products developed and transitioned to operational use within 60 days of planned target

Explanation:Tracks timeliness of transition of research products into operations

Measure: Percent of planned milestones achieved for NPOESS within budget costs within each quarter of the fiscal year

Explanation:Completing a milestone is an indicator of meeting cost, schedule, and performance for large satellite acquisitions.

Is the program purpose clear?

Explanation: The NOAA weather and satellite program purpose is to serve society's needs for weather and related information by providing timely and accurate forecasts and warnings. This program consists of the following components: Local Forecasts and Warnings, Hydrology, Space Weather, and Satellite Services and Acquisition Programs. These components work to deliver a comprehensive, coordinated, and sustained observing and data management system to increase lead time and accuracy of weather and water information to reduce loss of life, injury, and damage to the economy.

Evidence: The NWS Organic Act (15 U.S.C.§ 313) provides the authority to forecast the weather, issue weather and water related warnings and collect and transmit marine data. Satellite services directly supports this mandate. The Polar and Geostationary satellite aquisition programs ensure that observations and data will continue to meet these mandates. NOAA and NWS strategic plans and annual performance plans contain the program's mission - to provide forecasts and warnings for the U.S., its territories, adjacent waters and oceans, for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy.

Does the program address a specific and existing problem, interest, or need?

Explanation: The weather and satellite program addresses the need to provide timely and accurate weather and water information for the protection of life, property, and the nation's economy. The program collects environmental observations, e.g. by the Earth-observing satellites, processes and assimilates this information into forecasts and warnings, and disseminates this information to the public. The public and emergency managers rely on weather and water information to take appropriate actions to protect life and property.

Evidence: Severe weather is an on-going threat to public safety. In 2003 there were 438 deaths in the U.S. attributable to weather events, including lightning, tornadoes, extreme hot and cold temperatures, floods, and hurricanes. A recent NRC report noted that, "weather-related damages amount to $20 billion per year, and hundreds of millions of dollars are saved each year by taking action based on improved forecasts, warnings, and other weather services."

Is the program designed so that it is not redundant or duplicative of any other Federal, state, local or private effort?

Explanation: The weather and satellite program is the only national provider of daily weather forecasts, warnings, and alerts, storm and severe weather tracking, flood and river forecasting, and space weather alerts and warnings. NOAA works closely with its State, local, private sector and academic partners and the international community to set standards for data collection and dissemination and to avoid redundancy and duplication of effort. A recent NRC report stated that the current model - in which the government collects observations, develops and runs models, and generates forecasts and provides this information to the public, where the academic and private sectors can create specialized weather products, tools, and models - is appropriate and satisfies the government's obligation to make its information as widely available as possible. NOAA is working with DoD and NASA to jointly develop satellites to meet the requirements of all three agencies. NOAA has also worked closely with DoD and the FAA in planning and sharing the cost of weather observation equipment such as the NEXRAD radar and ASOS development and upgrades. NOAA should continue to work closely with its partners to identify opportunities to share information and should continue to systematically evaluate the need for new weather and climate products and services that meet national needs and develop a process for determining which products to discontinue.

Evidence: The NWS Organic Act (15 U.S.C. SEC. 313) authorizes NWS to provide weather warning and forecasts, and the program components work closely with other federal and state partners: MOU between NOAA and US Army Corps of Engineers, MOU between NOAA and US Geological Survey, Subsidiary Working Agreement between NOAA and US Department of Agriculture. NOAA has distinct and unique requirements for its satellite activities because of its mandate to provide weather and information. NOAA and fellow agencies have come to agreement on the boundaries of responsiblity for satellite systems in formalized Memorandums of Agreements (MOA) and Memorandums of Understandings (MOU), that define principles and guidelines in areas related to environmental satellite programs, including such activities as the development of space-based capabilities, and data and information systems, the coordination of research and analysis activities, and the acquisition, processing, exchange and long-term archive of unclassified environmental satellite data and products.

Is the program design free of major flaws that would limit the program's effectiveness or efficiency?

Explanation: NOAA's weather and satellite program is an integrated program that provides end-to-end collection, processing, and distribution of environmental satellite data and data from other ground observation systems to support timely and accurate forecasts and warnings. In general, the design of the program is adequate. The collection and provision of weather information is considered a public good, and the program requires the satellite and other observation systems to provide the forecasts and weather advisories. NOAA should continue to improve the consistency of research to operation transitions in the areas of weather prediction and environmental satellites.

Evidence: NRC publication, "Fair Weather: Effective Partnerships in Weather and Climate Services," identified NOAA's NWS as an efficient provider of weather information. NOAA and NWS strategic plans, annual performance plans and annual program performance reports.

Is the program design effectively targeted so that resources will address the program's purpose directly and will reach intended beneficiaries?

Explanation: The weather and satellite program, in general, targets its resources effectively to provide the Nation with weather, water, and climate forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Weather products (e.g. forecasts and advisories) are distributed in text and graphical format via the Internet and methods such as NOAA Weather Radio (NWR), to decision-makers, broadcast media, and end users for the public benefit. The program has begun using a Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution System (PPBES) to guide research and programmatic activities through an annual review of priorities and budget allocations to ensure the program is on track to meet its strategic objectives. This process has resulted in recent initiatives to advance water prediction science by providing water and soil condition forecasts via a national digital database. The program also solicits feedback from users and constituents through the PPBES process and in the annual update of its strategic plan, to understand stakeholder needs and priorities and determine if the program's level of services is adequate. The program should continue to systematically evaluate the need for new weather and climate products and services that meet national needs and develop a process for determining which products to discontinue.

Evidence: Program Baseline Assessments (PBAs) and program plans are developed each year as part of the PPBES process. Line Office and Program Annual Operating Plans (AOPs) outline milestones and performance measures that reflect these priorities, and monthly and quarterly reviews of these milestones and performance measures track progress of these activities. National Weather Service Strategic Plan for 2005-2010 FY 2006 Budget and Annual Performance Plan

Does the program have a limited number of specific long-term performance measures that focus on outcomes and meaningfully reflect the purpose of the program?

Explanation: The weather and satellite program has several long-term output measures that serve as proxy measures for the long-term strategic outcomes of reducing loss of life, injury and damage to the economy. Output measures of timeliness, accuracy, and efficiency are appropriate because the program produces weather information, which is used by the public (e.g. first responders) to reduce the loss of life, injury, and damage to the economy. Long-term performance measures that contribute to strategic outcomes include tornado lead time and accuracy, 48 hour hurricane track forecast error, winter storm warning lead time and accuracy, and the number of StormReady/TsunamiReady communities.

Evidence: Long-term program goals and outcomes are documented in NOAA's Strategic Plan. Performance measures are documented in annual budget submissions and accompanying annual performance plans, annual Performance and Accountability Reports, line office strategic plans, line office and program annual operating plans, and monthly performance reports.

Does the program have ambitious targets and timeframes for its long-term measures?

Explanation: In general, the program's performance measures have ambitious targets for the weather and water-related forecasts and warnings. For example, the program has a goal of increasing the number of StormReady/TsunamiReady communities from the 2003 baseline of 651 communities to 1125 communities in 2010, increasing the tornado lead time from 13 minutes in FY04 to 16 minutes in FY10, and increasing flash flood lead time from 47 minutes in FY04 to 50 minutes in FY10. For the satellite GOES-R component of the program, the visible imagery will improve from 1km to 1/2km, providing increased resolution for improved forecast models; temporal resolution of the continental U.S. image will refresh itself every minute by 2012, compared to the current rate of a refresh every 15 minutes. In addition, in FY10 the program has a goal of processing terrabytes of data per day, compared to today's data rate of gigabytes (1,000 times more data). These improvements in satellite observations and data processing support the goals of increased lead times and accuracy for weather and water warnings.

Evidence: Performance measure targets are specified in the annual budget submissions and accompanying annual performance plans, annual Performance and Accountability Reports, annual operating plans and strategic plans. The GOES Program Requirements Document (GPRD) shows future performance improvement.

Does the program have a limited number of specific annual performance measures that can demonstrate progress toward achieving the program's long-term goals?

Explanation: The weather and satellite program has several annual measures which contribute to the long-term measures and strategic outcomes. Annual measures include annual targets for the output measures discussed in Q 2.1, accuracy and timeliness of space weather forecasts, satellite procurement milestones, and satellite accuracy and timeliness of data processing.

Evidence: Performance measure targets are specified in the annual budget submissions and accompanying annual performance plans, annual Performance and Accountability Reports, annual operating plans and strategic plans, and in line office program annual operating plans.

Does the program have baselines and ambitious targets for its annual measures?

Explanation: The weather and satellite program's annual performance measures contain ambitious targets. The program should ensure targets are ambitious given actual performance and should adopt a more ambitious target for the NPOESS milestones.

Evidence: Performance measure targets are specified in the annual budget submissions and accompanying annual performance plans, annual Performance and Accountability Reports, annual operating plans and strategic plans, and in line office program annual operating plans.

Do all partners (including grantees, sub-grantees, contractors, cost-sharing partners, and other government partners) commit to and work toward the annual and/or long-term goals of the program?

Explanation: Program partners include contractors for the development and operations and maintence of several weather and satellite procurements and IT systems, a small number of program grantees, NASA and OAR research programs, and the academic and private sectors who evaluate and enhance weather information and dissemate information to the public. NWS and NESDIS also function as internal partners; NESDIS provides the satellite observations used for the weather forecasts and warnings. Grant applications require applicants to identify performance measures that link to the program's goals. Contracts contain specific cost, schedule, and performance requirements that are consistent with the program's strategic outcomes. Contractors regularly measure and report on their performance through earned value management reporting. MOUs with Federal agencies also contain performance requirements that link to the program's goals.

Evidence: The NRC report, "Fair Weather: Effective Partnerships in Weather and Climate Services," noted that the existing partnership arrangement in which NWS provides models and products which are available to the public, where they are used by individuals as well as by the academic and private sectors to create specialized weather products, tools, and models is appropriate. Contracts and grant applications require applicants to directly link the outcome of the work to agency performance goals. The satellite aquisition component has developed processes to ensure coordination of major acquisitions. Part of the procurement process is regular participation in monthly status reviews and management reviews that provide continuous assessment of program performance through variance analysis, cost reporting and technical program assessments. NWS maintains monthly program status reports for 36 separate projects and contracts. Various MOAs between agencies also ensure that Federal partners support the program's goals (e.g. USGS, NASA, DOT, and USDA).

Are independent evaluations of sufficient scope and quality conducted on a regular basis or as needed to support program improvements and evaluate effectiveness and relevance to the problem, interest, or need?

Explanation: The weather and satellite program is routinely evaluated to ensure that the program is effectively accomplishing its mission and meeting its long-term goals. Specifically, the National Research Council (NRC) has conducted several evaluations of NWS programs and activities, including its partnership structure, the transition process from research to operations, satellite programs, radar coverage, and aviation services. The program has used these evaluations to make improvements in its programs, for example, improving the quality, frequency, and distribution of surface observations. The satellite component of the program also uses external subject matter experts to evaluate technical readiness for critical launch dates and to perform independent analysis of acquisition approaches and cost benefit analyses to assure adherence with procurement guidelines and policies. NWS has regular reviews conducted for each service area, including marine, aviation, severe weather, space weather, climate, and hydrology.

Evidence: NRC studies including: Fair Weather: Effective Partnerships in Weather and Climate Services, Future of the National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Network, Weather for Those Who Fly, Weather Radar Technology Beyond NEXRAD, An Assessment of the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System, Review of Modernization Criteria, Toward a New National Weather Service (2nd Report), Technological and Scientific Opportunities for Improved Weather and Hydrological Services in the coming Decade, Aviation Weather Services-A Call for Federal Leadership and Action, and Assessment of NEXRAD Coverage and Associated Weather Services. A review of the satellite program was conducted in January 2004 by NOAA and its partners. This review examined the effectiveness and relevance of the program and identified areas for program improvements. In late 2003 and early 2004 the NOAA Science Advisory Board (SAB) commissioned a study of the National Center for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) ocean modeling capacity and capability. The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) facilitated the panel visit to NCEP headquarters and follow-up meetings. The final report was approved by the SAB in July 2004. The space weather program is evaluated every three years by members of industry, academia, and other government agencies such as DOD and NASA.

Are Budget requests explicitly tied to accomplishment of the annual and long-term performance goals, and are the resource needs presented in a complete and transparent manner in the program's budget?

Explanation: NOAA has made progress using a Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution System (PPBES) to better define how the many components of the weather and water program contribute to annual, long-term, and strategic goals. This process helps to guide research and programmatic activities through an annual review of priorities and budget allocations to ensure the program is on track to meet its strategic objectives. The annual budget requests include the full cost of attaining performance goals and all programmatic increases and new capital projects include specific performance information. Budget and performance data are integrated and the impact of funding decisions on performance is shown. The program should continue to increase the transparency of how its base programs align with performance goals.

Evidence: NOAA's annual budget requests; Program Baseline Assessments (PBAs) and program plans developed each year as part of the PPBES process; Line Office and Program Annual Operating Plans (AOPs) that outline milestones and performance measures that reflect these priorities.

Has the program taken meaningful steps to correct its strategic planning deficiencies?

Explanation: The Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution System (PPBES) process is designed to identify strategic planning deficiencies and address them in an annual performance review and budget planning process. This process requires that programs develop program baseline assessments to link activities to annual, long-term, and strategic performance goals and identify all requirements that are needed to achieve these goals. The programs then develop annual operating plans that contain quarterly milestones to achieve annual performance measures. The program uses these plans to monitor milestone performance and respond to any deficiencies. As part of the annual PPBES review process, the program also reviews and updates its strategic plan.

Evidence: Description of the NOAA PPBES process; NWS and NESDIS program baseline assessments and annual operating plans; NOAA strategic plans

Has the agency/program conducted a recent, meaningful, credible analysis of alternatives that includes trade-offs between cost, schedule, risk, and performance goals, and used the results to guide the resulting activity?

Explanation: The program has conducted internal and used external analysis of alternatives to examine trade-offs when designing its satellite programs - the National Polar-Orbiting Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) and Geostationary Operational Envrionmental Satellite (GOES). The NPOESS program is a result of a Presidential Directive to converge civilian and military polar satellite program. During the NPOESS acquisition process, an extensive list of alternatives and detailed analyses of the design proposals addressed cost, schedule, risk, and technical performance issues. The redevelopment of the GOES program, or GOES-R, has incorporated an end-to-end approach built on mission requirements and the study of program alternatives. A research development contractor was used to provide multiple concept design center simulation runs to examine the feasibility of configurations and modes of operations. Three spacecraft architecture alternatives resulting in 13 spacecraft configurations were evaluated for structure and dynamics, power, propulsion, and thermal efficiencies. The three alternatives included: consolidated spacecraft architecture, distributed spacecraft architecture, and MEO spacecraft architecture. The NOAA's GOES-R program awarded several architecture study contracts to industry in November 2003 to evaluate alternatives of end-to-end architecture approaches. When these are complete, the program office will assess all approaches submitted by industry and recommend alternate satellite configurations, data distributions approaches, and data archives. The program also conducts Exhibit 300s in it annual budget process that examine alternatives of its IT and annual capital investments.

Evidence: NPOESS design studies and analysis of alternatives; GOES-R architectural studies and cost-benefit analysis; NOAA Exhibit 300s

Does the agency regularly collect timely and credible performance information, including information from key program partners, and use it to manage the program and improve performance?

Explanation: In general, the weather and satellite program regularly collects useful performance information that it uses to manage and improve the program, including weather forecast accuracy and lead times for severe weather events. The NWS has an online verification database that tracks this information on a continual basis and allows managers to view performance over time and geographic regions (NWS regions and forecast offices). This information is reviewed regularly and as part of the annual PPBES process. Because of this annual review, recent initiatives to advance water prediction science by providing water and soil condition forecasts via a national digital database were initiated to improve the ability of the program to meet its strategic objectives in this area. The satellite program also collects and tracks performance data, including the amount of data accurately processed and provided on a timely basis to NWS. The NPOESS contract uses earned value management for cost, schedule and performance milestones. However, due to recent cost and schedule overruns in the NPOESS program, the program should improve this reporting mechanism, including its management and oversight. The program also conducts monthly reviews of annual operating plans and assesses progress meeting annual performance targets.

Evidence: NWS performance verification database; quarterly annual operating plan reports; annual performance and accountability reports; NPOESS monthly earned value management reports

Are Federal managers and program partners (including grantees, sub-grantees, contractors, cost-sharing partners, and other government partners) held accountable for cost, schedule and performance results?

Explanation: The NPOESS cost plus award fee contract (one of NOAA's two major satellite programs) is managed through monthly, earned value management reports that are reviewed by the NPOESS Tri-agency Steering Committee. The prime contractor is evaluated every 6 months on cost, schedule, and technical performance to determine award fees. The NPOESS program has encountered significant cost and schedule overruns. As of March 2005, the prime contracter had received most of its possible total award for the prior four award periods. NOAA has instituted management reforms to increase oversight and performance reporting to address these issues. However, given the significant overruns in the NPOESS program, there is not sufficient evidence at this point, that program managers and contractors are adequately held accountable for its performance. In other areas of the program, managers have performance plans that include quantifiable performance measures and milestones that are tied to the program's performance goals. One manager is responsible for each program component and its performance measures and managers are required to report monthly and quarterly on cost, schedule, and performance for various programs. Contractors are held accountable through deliverables specified in their contracts. The program uses a mix of fixed price and cost plus award fee contracts for different acquisitions and services.

Evidence: Contracts and award fee structure, and program manager performance plans.

Are funds (Federal and partners') obligated in a timely manner and spent for the intended purpose?

Explanation: Annual spending plans are developed that reflect the purpose of the program as defined in budget submissions and appropriations. Monthly spending reports include actual and planned obligations. Spending plans are regularly monitored, if the monthly variance from the plan is greater than 5% an explanation is required and corrections are taken as necessary. The program's obligations have been consistent with its spending plans. In FY 2003 and FY 2004 NOAA's NWS obligated within 98% of its plan for each fiscal year. Also in FY 2003 and FY 2004, the satellite component of the program obligated within 99% of total planned obligations.

Evidence: Annual spending plans; SF 133 reports

Does the program have procedures (e.g. competitive sourcing/cost comparisons, IT improvements, appropriate incentives) to measure and achieve efficiencies and cost effectiveness in program execution?

Explanation: The weather and satellite program has several procedures to measure and achieve efficiencies in program execution. The program has efficiency measures and targets, including the processing capability of the computer systems of its local forecast offices and the time required to disseminate all-hazard warnings. These measures are useful in describing the improvements in the processing rating of local forecast office workstations from 172 seconds in 2004 to 133 seconds in 2009 and in the reduction from 7 to 2 minutes in the time to disseminate all hazards information. The program also uses competitive sourcing for a number of areas, including computer support and operations and maintenance of its Advance Weather Integrating Processing Systems used at every local forecasting office. A-76 studies are conducted and contract services are used when determined to be most cost-effective.

Evidence: Annual budget submissions and annual performance plans. Contract support is procured through competitive contract procedures, tracked by earned value management reports of progress on cost, schedule, and performance milestones, and include the use of incentives to reward contractors who produce tangible productivity and efficiency gains.

Does the program collaborate and coordinate effectively with related programs?

Explanation: The program collaborates effectively with several government and non-governmental organizations, including with: FAA to share data from NEXRAD stations; DHS to better integrate weather advisories and warnings with homeland security information; USGS to cooperate in areas of mutual interest and share data; USDA to provide snow avalanche information; NASA to develop and operate the GOES program; with NASA and DOD to develop the NPOESS program; and NWS and NESDIS collaborate internally by providing satellite data for forecasts and advisories. A few NRC reports have identified the need for improved transitioning of research to operations in the areas of weather prediction and environmental satellites. The program recently has undertaken a variety of actions to improve the current research to operations transition pathways. However, the program is in the initial stages of this effort with NASA. The program has also began an effort to clarify its policy regarding the provision of information products and services. The program should continue these efforts to ensure that it will consistently result in improved collaboration and coordination with research programs and with the users of its information in the government, academia and the private sector.

Evidence: The program has representatives on various government-wide oversight and planning committees. For example, the Hydrology Program is an active member of the Federal Advisory Committee on Water Information. The committee represents the interests of water-information users and professionals in advising the Federal government on Federal water-information programs and the effectiveness in meeting the Nation's water-information needs. The program also has MOUs with several agencies including: USGS, NASA, and USDA. The program has a Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, managed by NESDIS, NWS, and other collaborating members. Satellite programs collaborate with the satellite acquisition programs of NOAA, DOD, and NASA to define requirements and provide source selection and technical advice for future satellite systems. NRC publications, "Fair Weather: Effective Partnerships in Weather and Climate Services," "Earth Science and Applications from Space: Urgent Needs and Opportunities to Serve the Nation," "Satellite Observations of the Earth's Environment," and "From Research to Operations in Weather Satellites and Numerical Weather Prediction: Crossing the Valley of Death."

Does the program use strong financial management practices?

Explanation: NOAA has received clean audit opinions for 6 consecutive years, there have been no material weaknesses for the last 2 years, and there have been no issues with non-compliance with laws and regulations related to financial management. NOAA also uses the Commerce Business Systems (CBS) for its financial management. CBS is compliant with the Federal Financial Management Improvement Act and permits daily review of financial transactions. EVM reports with cost, schedule, and performance data are used for satellite contracts and all large NWS contracts.

Evidence: NOAA annual performance and accountability reports; annual spending plans; Commerce Administrative Management System (CAMS); and examples of monthly, quarterly, and annual cost reviews.

Has the program taken meaningful steps to address its management deficiencies?

Explanation: The weather and satellite program has identified and addressed management deficiencies in several mechanisms including: during the development of program baseline assessments as part of the NOAA Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution System (PPBES) process; external reviews to identify management deficiencies and potential solutions, e.g. the satellite services program underwent an external review in 2003 that resulted in the realignment of data processing capabilities to improve the program's efficiencies.; and through the implementation of a Corporate/Executive Board structure to improve decision making, review, and coordination within the agency. In response to management issues raised in this section of the PART, the program has established a NOAA/NASA Research to Operations Transition Management Oversight Team and the Joint Working Group (JWG) to develop a transition plan for the key space/data/modeling capabilities from NASA to NOAA in FY05. The program has also established an internal Policy on the Transition of Research to Application in May 2005 to address the principles and associated responsibilities required for transferring existing NOAA research results, migrating non-NOAA research, and implementing new research results into NOAA's operations to meet the goals stated in NOAA's strategic plan. The program is also evaluating the NPOESS EVM reporting and management structure to identify areas of improvement.

Evidence: The NWS Strategic Plan, annual operating plan, headquarters reorganization, PPBES, and corporate board operating procedures include standard business practices to enhance agency management. The satellite services component of the Weather & Water Services Program has undergone a realignment to take into account recommendations of an external review process. In October 2004, NOAA approved an official realignment of the satellite services program to streamline data processing and gain efficiencies. NOAA's research plan from January 2005, "Research in NOAA:Toward Understanding and Predicting Earth's Environment"

Is the program managed by maintaining clearly defined deliverables, capability/performance characteristics, and appropriate, credible cost and schedule goals?

Explanation: Most of the satellite development and acquisition programs have clearly defined technical performance requirements and data products that are expected for each acquisition. Earned value management reporting of contractor progress on cost, schedule, and performance are tracked on a monthly basis for all large contracts and acquisitions. However, due to recent significant overruns in the NPOESS program, the original cost and schedule goals will not be able to be met and it is therefore not evident that this program is managed by appropriate, credible cost and schedule goals.

Evidence: Program requirements are documented in NPOESS plans and contractor agreements. Plans and schedules are in place and monitored in monthly EVM reports, to help meet the many contractually binding requirements that exist to ensure program capabilities are met. For example, key performance parameters and requirements have been identified for NPOESS in the IORD, and for GOES-R, which is still being developed, in the GOES Program Requirements Document (GPRD).

Has the program demonstrated adequate progress in achieving its long-term performance goals?

Explanation: The weather and satellite program rogram has made progress in achieving its long-term goals, particularly in improving accuracy and timeliness of forecasts and warnings. For example, the 48-hour hurricane track forecasts have improved from a track error of 262 nautical miles in 1961 to 94 nautical miles in 2004, flash flood lead time has increased from 8 minutes in 1987 to 47 minutes in 2004, and the lead times for tornado warnings have increased from a national average of 5 minutes in the early 1990s to 13 minutes in 2004. Most of the satellite programs have met their long-term performance measures and has demonstrated improvements in the amount and timeliness of data processed and distributed. In FY10 the satellite program plans to process terrabytes of data per day, compared to today's data rate of gigabytes (1,000 times more data). However, the NPOESS program, has not made adequate progress in meeting cost and schedule goals.

Evidence: Performance data are documented in annual budget submissions and accompanying annual performance plans, annual Performance and Accountability Reports, line office strategic plans, line office and program annual operating plans, and monthly performance reports.

Does the program (including program partners) achieve its annual performance goals?

Explanation: The weather and satellite program meets most of its annual performance measures. In FY03 NOAA's NWS met 11 out of 14 and in FY04 met 9 of 14 of its GPRA measures. In FY04, NOAA's NWS met 84% of its milestones included in the NWS Annual Operating Plan. In FY 2004, NOAA's Satellite program met or exceeded its major performance targets.

Evidence: Performance data are documented in annual budget submissions and accompanying annual performance plans, annual Performance and Accountability Reports, line office strategic plans, line office and program annual operating plans, and monthly performance reports.

Does the program demonstrate improved efficiencies or cost effectiveness in achieving program goals each year?

Explanation: The weather and satellite program has demonstrated improved efficiencies in several areas by expanding the number of products and improving its services. As evidenced by its efficiency measures, the processing rating of local forecast office workstations is expected to improve from 172 seconds in 2004 to 133 seconds in 2009, and the time to disseminate all hazards information is expected to improve from 7 minutes in 2004 to 2 minutes in 2006. However, the NPOESS satellite program has experienced cost and schedule overruns in the past year. This program is at least 25% over budget and the satellite launches are delayed by at least two years.

Evidence: Annual budget submissions and accompanying annual performance plans; NPOESS earned value management reports

Does the performance of this program compare favorably to other programs, including government, private, etc., with similar purpose and goals?

Explanation: The program compares favorably with other Federal programs with similar purpose and goals, such as DoD weather forecasting entities. The program also compares favorably with international weather and satellite agencies such as UKMET, EUMETSAT, ECMWF, CNES, and Japanese Meteorological Agency. The Weather and Water Services Program is recognized as a leader in satellite derived observations for weather and water warnings, and in short-term weather warnings.

Evidence: Data on global weather model performance show that the program performs favorable compared to the Navy's Fleet Numerical Weather Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The NCEP Global Model Performance 500 mb Anomaly Correlation Coefficient Comparison demonstrates that the program is only slightly behind the European Center for medium range weather forecasts.

Do independent evaluations of sufficient scope and quality indicate that the program is effective and achieving results?

Explanation: External reviews demonstrate that the program is largely effective and achieving results. The NRC report "Fair Weather: Effective Partnerships in Weather and Climate Services," identified NOAA's NWS as an efficient provider of weather information and that the existing partnership arrangement in which NWS provides models and products which are available to the public, where they are used by individuals as well as by the academic and private sectors to create specialized weather products, tools, and models is appropriate. Some areas for improvement have been identified by these studies, including that the program should improve the transitioning of research to operations in the areas of weather prediction and environmental satellites; that the program should develop processes for discontinuing the dissemination of products and services that are specific to particular individuals or organizations; and that the program should interact more extensively with the research community to better promote opportunities to achieve state-of-the-art weather observing and forecasting ability.

Evidence: NRC studies including: Fair Weather: Effective Partnerships in Weather and Climate Services, Future of the National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Network, Weather for Those Who Fly, Weather Radar Technology Beyond NEXRAD, An Assessment of the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System, Review of Modernization Criteria, Toward a New National Weather Service (2nd Report), Technological and Scientific Opportunities for Improved Weather and Hydrological Services in the coming Decade, Aviation Weather Services-A Call for Federal Leadership and Action, and Assessment of NEXRAD Coverage and Associated Weather Services.

Were program goals achieved within budgeted costs and established schedules?

Explanation: Segments of the geostationary and polar satellite acquisition programs, in the past, have achieved their goals largely within established schedules and budgets. However, the NPOESS program has recently incurred cost and schedule overruns. Due to management and technical problems, the NPOESS program will not be able to achieve its performance goals on budget and on schedule.

Evidence: Budget and performance data in the monthly NPOESS program management reviews and earned value data. GOES and POES contract schedules and deliverables.