The White House, President George W. Bush Click to print this document

For Immediate Release
September 26, 2006

The Rest of the Story: The NIE Reflects Previous Statements About the War on Terror

     Fact sheet In Focus: National Security
     Fact sheet Setting the Record Straight

Impact Of Iraq

Declassified Key Judgments Of The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE): "We Assess That The Iraq Jihad Is Shaping A New Generation Of Terrorist Leaders And Operatives; Perceived Jihadist Success There Would Inspire More Fighters To Continue The Struggle Elsewhere." (Office Of The Director Of National Intelligence, "Declassified Key Judgments Of The National Intelligence Estimate 'Trends In Global Terrorism: Implications For The United States' Dated April 2006," Released 9/26/06)

Adaptation Of The Global Jihadist Movement

NIE: "We Also Assess That The Global Jihadist Movement … Is Spreading And Adapting To Counterterrorism Efforts."

Threat From Self-Radicalized Cells

NIE: "We Assess That The Operational Threat From Self-Radicalized Cells Will Grow In Importance To US Counterterrorism Efforts, Particularly Abroad But Also In The Homeland."

Decentralization Of The Global Jihadist Movement

NIE: "We Assess That The Global Jihadist Movement Is Decentralized, Lacks A Coherent Global Strategy, And Is Becoming More Diffuse." "New jihadist networks and cells, with anti-American agendas, are increasingly likely to emerge. The confluence of shared purpose and dispersed actors will make it harder to find and undermine jihadist groups."

Underlying Factors Of The Global Jihadist Movement

NIE: "We Assess That The Underlying Factors Fueling The Spread Of The Movement Outweigh Its Vulnerabilities And Are Likely To Do So For The Duration Of The Timeframe Of This Estimate."

Threat From Al-Qaeda

NIE: "United States-Led Counterterrorism Efforts Have Seriously Damaged The Leadership Of Al-Qaeda And Disrupted Its Operations; However, We Judge That Al-Qaeda Will Continue To Pose The Greatest Threat To The Homeland And US Interests Abroad By A Single Terrorist Organization."

Dangers Posed By Al-Qaeda Affiliates

NIE: "We Assess That [Other Affiliated Sunni Extremist Organizations] Pose Less Of A Danger To The Homeland Than Does Al-Qaeda But Will Pose Varying Degrees Of Threat To Our Allies And To US Interests Abroad."

Tactics Of Jihadist Groups

NIE: "We Judge That Most Jihadist Groups – Both Well-Known And Newly Formed – Will Use Improvised Explosive Devices And Suicide Attacks Focused Primarily On Soft Targets To Implement Their Asymmetric Warfare Strategy, And That They Will Attempt To Conduct Sustained Terrorist Attacks In Urban Environments." "Fighters with experience in Iraq are a potential source of leadership for jihadists pursuing these tactics."

Use Of The Internet

NIE: "We Judge That Groups Of All Stripes Will Increasingly Use The Internet To Communicate, Propagandize, Recruit, Train, And Obtain Logistical And Financial Support."

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