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Detailed Information on the
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration: Tsunami Monitoring, Forecasting, and Warning Program Assessment

Program Code 10009082
Program Title National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration: Tsunami Monitoring, Forecasting, and Warning Program
Department Name Department of Commerce
Agency/Bureau Name National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Program Type(s) Direct Federal Program
Assessment Year 2008
Assessment Rating Effective
Assessment Section Scores
Section Score
Program Purpose & Design 100%
Strategic Planning 100%
Program Management 100%
Program Results/Accountability 87%
Program Funding Level
(in millions)
FY2007 $33
FY2008 $29
FY2009 $29

Ongoing Program Improvement Plans

Year Began Improvement Plan Status Comments
2009

Implement recently developed measures to ensure that warning operations and maintenance targets are met and continue to be ambitious.

No action taken
2009

Target hazard assessments and improve quality of decision tools (forecast maps/models) for highest risk communities.

No action taken
2009

Track performance measures and implement plans to track improvements in inundation model forecasts, data archival, and inundation mapping.

No action taken
2009

Improve outcome-oriented measures regarding international partnerships and exchange of data.

No action taken
2009

Implement newly developed measures to ensure that warning operations and maintenance targets are met and continue to be ambitious.

No action taken

Completed Program Improvement Plans

Year Began Improvement Plan Status Comments

Program Performance Measures

Term Type  
Long-term Output

Measure: Tsunami Warning Accuracy (Percent)


Explanation:Tsunami Warning Accuracy is the percentage of time a tsunami was verified to occur in an area covered by a tsunami warning. Due to the infrequency of events, it is represented as a 10 year rolling average. The baseline for this measure is 60 percent in 2005. The difference between the actual and 100% represents false alarms, or the percentage of warnings issued without a tsunami having been observed in the warned area. Tsunami warnings are verified by tsunami signals on coastal water level gauges (tide gauges), visual sightings, or post-event analysis.

Year Target Actual
2005 Baseline 64
2006 70 69
2007 70 72
2008 70
2009 80
2010 80
2011 90
2012 90
2013 90
Long-term Output

Measure: Geographic Accuracy of Tsunami Warnings (Percent Accuracy Improvement in Warned Area)


Explanation:Geographical accuracy reflects forecast skill in targeting warnings to where threat of tsunami flooding and impact is greatest. With improvements in detection and modeling capability, the goal is to reduce the geographic area that is warned and subsequently the number of false alarms. The target and actual show percent geographical accuracy improvement using the coastline that would have been warned following practices used at the Tsunami Warning Centers in 2005 as the reference. The baseline is 0. Warning zones are computed for eleven consistent referenced events, which are magnitude 7.2, 7.7, and 8.1 earthquakes centered in Northern California, the Gulf of Alaska, and the central Aleutian Islands and magnitude 7.7 and 8.1 earthquakes centered in Kamchatka.

Year Target Actual
2005 Baseline 0
2006 10 25
2007 19 25
2008 27
2009 34
2010 37
2011 41
2012 44
2013 47
Long-term Outcome

Measure: Economic Impact from Tsunami Warnings (Billions of Dollars)


Explanation:False alarms are costly for residences and businesses that are forced to evacuate in the absence of a tsunami. As the program improves its capability to predict the geographic extent and duration of tsunamis, the economic impact from warnings will decrease. The measure is calculated using the geographical accuracy of tsunami warnings (described in measure #2), average population and businesses per kilometer of coastline, and an estimate of average evacuation cost per kilometer (based on comparable hurricane data). The baseline for this measure is $8B in 2005. The target and actual show percent accuracy improvement from the baseline value during subsequent years. The economic impact of a warning is a combination of expenses including evacuation, transportation, lost wages, closed businesses and other economic disruptions. Targets will be achieved through Improved risk assessments, modeling and mapping, and detection systems.

Year Target Actual
2005 Baseline $8.0
2006 $7.2 $6.0
2007 $6.5 $6.0
2008 $5.8
2009 $5.2
2010 $5.0
2011 $4.7
2012 $4.5
2013 $4.3
Long-term Outcome

Measure: Number of TsunamiReady Communities in High Hazard Areas


Explanation:This measures TsunamiReady?? communities in coastal areas of highest hazard potential to tsunami threat. The baseline for this measure is 7 communities in 2002 with cumulative totals in subsequent years. These regions include U.S. western States, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, and US western Pacific island territories. Qualitative tsunami hazard ranking is based on National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program analysis and assessment of wave inundation, event frequency, local earthquakes and reported deaths. The measure is an outcome measure for sustained preparedness. The targets will be achieved through education, outreach, and capacity development.

Year Target Actual
2002 Baseline 7
2003 10 9
2004 15 13
2005 20 23
2006 33 31
2007 39 38
2008 47
2009 55
2010 65
2011 75
2012 85
2013 95
Long-term Outcome

Measure: Countries assisted through the International Global Tsunami Network


Explanation:Providing international tsunami services, technology transfer and education is a high priority in the national mission. This measure represents the number of official Tsunami Warning Focal points in other countries that receive forecasts and information from NOAA's Tsunami Program. From 1965 through 2004, NOAA provided warning services under international arrangements for 28 countries in the Pacific Ocean region. Since 2005, NOAA provides forecasts through intergovernmental agreement for countries in the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, the South China Sea, Western Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico and Southern (Antarctic) Ocean. The baseline for this measure is 50 countries in 2006. This measure depends on, among other factors, the host country's capacity to receive and distribute NOAA's forecasts. Targets will be achieved by contributing to the development of a fully functional global tsunami forecasting and warning system, providing international technical assistance and training, transfer detection and communication technology, promoting free and open exchange of relevant data, and developing capacity through the International Tsunami Information Center, Data Centers, Research Centers and partnerships of the NTHMP.

Year Target Actual
2006 Baseline 50
2007 65 60
2008 70
2009 75
2010 80
2011 85
2012 90
2013 95
Annual Output

Measure: Elapsed Time from Earthquake to Tsunami Message Product Issuance for Regional Events (Minutes)


Explanation:This measure represents the elapsed time from when a regional earthquake is detected to when the appropriate message is issued by the Tsunami Warning Center. The baseline for this measure is 15 minutes. Regional earthquakes are "within" the NOAA Tsunami Warning Center's regional Area of Responsibility and include coastlines of all U.S. states and territories. Targets will be achieved through improvements in the quantity, quality and positioning of seismic stations, faster and more reliable data transport, and improvements in data processing.

Year Target Actual
2000 Baseline 10.5
2001 15.0 10.3
2002 15.0 8.6
2003 15.0 10.1
2004 15.0 10.3
2005 15.0 9.9
2006 15.0 8.3
2007 10.0 7.1
2008 9.0
2009 8.0
2010 7.0
2011 6.0
2012 5.5
2013 5.0
Annual Output

Measure: Elapsed Time from Earthquake to Tsunami Message Product Issuance for Distant Events (Minutes)


Explanation:This measure represents the elapsed time from when a distant earthquake is detected to when the appropriate message is issued by the Tsunami Warning Center. The baseline for this measure is 60 minutes. Distant earthquakes are "outside" the NOAA Tsunami Warning Center's regional Area of Responsibility. Tsunamis generated in these more distant areas will not strike the regional AOR immediately, but can strike within an hour to a few hours. Targets will be achieved through improvements in the quantity, quality and positioning of seismic stations, faster and more reliable data transport, and improvements in data processing.

Year Target Actual
2000 Baseline 53.0
2001 50.0 46.0
2002 40.0 36.0
2003 35.0 33.0
2004 30.0 22.0
2005 25.0 24.0
2006 23.0 24.0
2007 22.0 20.0
2008 21.0
2009 20.0
2010 19.0
2011 18.0
2012 17.0
2013 16.0
Annual Output

Measure: Number of Inundation Forecast Models for Specific High Risk Areas


Explanation:This measure is the number of inundation forecast models available to be used in standardized inundation mapping and to advance forecasting for at-risk coastal communities. The baseline for this measure is 8 models in 2005 with cumulative totals in subsequent years. Targets will be achieved through the integration of new science and data from characterization of coastal and deep-ocean regions, research on tsunami inundation and vulnerability, ongoing development of tools for data analysis as well as improved geospatial and graphical representation.

Year Target Actual
2005 Baseline 8
2006 16 16
2007 22 22
2008 34
2009 43
2010 53
2011 68
2012 83
2013 100
Annual Output

Measure: Data Availability from the Observational Networks (Percent)


Explanation:Tsunami Warning Centers (TWC) rely on data from appropriately sited and near real-time sensors to analyze earthquakes and any subsequent tsunami. Accurate and timely tsunami forecasts depend on instrumentation that is properly functioning. This measure represents the percent of the network that is in "up-time". The percentage of data available is calculated using three critical observation capabilities including water level network, Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART??) network, and seismological network. The baseline for this measure is 85 percent for 2005. The metric is an average of the data availability from each of the three networks, with each network comprising one-third of the total percent of the data collection system that is operational. Targets will be achieved through improving network design and reliability.

Year Target Actual
2005 Baseline 85.8
2006 86.0 88.9
2007 87.0 88.8
2008 88.0
2009 89.0
2010 90.0
2011 91.0
2012 92.0
2013 93.0
Annual Efficiency

Measure: DART?? Network Operation and Maintenance Cost Efficiency (Millions of Dollars per Network) [2007 Dollars]


Explanation:This measure tracks the cost of operating and maintaining the Deep-Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART?? II) station network and provides a means to evaluate the efficiency of the tsunami detection system. The measure includes the capital expenditures for new equipment as well as the labor requirements for equipment refurbishment, integration, and testing. The baseline for this measure is $6.45M in 2007 dollars. In March 2008 the Tsunami Program reached full operating capacity with a network of 39 second-generation DART?? II stations deployed in the Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans, Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. The marine service requirement (ship days) to support the DART?? network is not included in this efficiency measure.

Year Target Actual
2008 Baseline
2009 6.26
2010 6.08
2011 5.90
2012 5.73
2013 5.56
Annual Efficiency

Measure: Operation and Maintenance Efficiency for Archiving and Distribution of Historical Tsunami Data (Ratio of Operation and Maintenance Cost (Dollars) to Data (Gigabytes) archived and available) [2007 Dollars]


Explanation:A single, comprehensive and integrated archive of historical data is essential for optimization of forecast and warning, hazard and risk mitigation, and research to improve modeling and understanding of tsunamis. Historical data provides the ability to assess rapidly potential tsunamigenic events based on past occurrences, conduct tsunami and water-level related research, provides input for improved modeling and forecasts, and enables analysis of actual events compared to predicted tsunami behaviors. The quantity of data archived depends on partnerships with data suppliers, data management standards and practices, and level of effort at contributing data centers. The measure is the ratio between the operation and maintenance costs compared to gigabytes of data archived and delivered. The baseline for this measure is a ratio of 200:1 as of 2007. The Program realizes cost efficiencies through sharing of the essential hardware, software, and infrastructure necessary for data management and delivery by utilizing the National Data Centers. Additional efficiencies are achieved through eliminating duplication of data storage and associated costs at the operational and research centers.

Year Target Actual
2007 Baseline 191
2008 175
2009 102
2010 81
2011 79
2012 69
2013 61
Annual Efficiency

Measure: Ship days for repairs to the network of DART?? buoys


Explanation:DART buoys are the principal tool used to detect tsunamis. The program has optimized a system to perform routine maintenance on the DART buoys, but occasionally instruments malfunction, necessitating costly emergency repairs. This measure is the number of ship days required to conduct emergency maintenance (non-scheduled discrepancy response) of the DART?? II network. Non-scheduled emergency visits are conducted to make repairs when stations fail between routine, scheduled visits. These emergency visits are required for a number of reasons including when regional network reliability declines and damage is caused to individual stations by storms, vandalism, and accidental impact by ships at sea. The baseline for this measure is 80 days as of 2007. Targets will be achieved through aggressive operational, data management and contractual strategies along with technological improvements.

Year Target Actual
2007 Baseline 80
2008 80
2009 78
2010 76
2011 74
2012 72
2013 70

Questions/Answers (Detailed Assessment)

Section 1 - Program Purpose & Design
Number Question Answer Score
1.1

Is the program purpose clear?

Explanation: The purpose of the program is to provide and improve tsunami warnings and education needed to minimize the potential socio-economic losses and disruption from tsunami hazards. The program is to integrate observing systems and operate Tsunami Warning Centers and related data and communication networks for rapid tsunami detection, analysis, and dissemination of early warnings and forecasts to authorities and people in high-risk areas. The Program is to transfer technology, maintain and upgrade capabilities, and seek collaboration with other Federal agencies. The Program is to lead the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), a partnership with states, localities, tribes, and businesses, to promote sustainable community-based preparedness, timely warnings, and effective response. The program purpose includes maintaining a research program and providing international assistance and training. This is consistent with and supportive of U.S. strategic interests and international efforts to develop a global tsunami forecast and warning system.

Evidence: (A) Tsunami Warning and Education Act (TWEA) (Public Law 109-424.); (B) National Weather Service Organic Act (15 U.S.C. Sec 313); ( C) Reorganization Plan No. 2 of 1965 created the Environmental Science Services Administration in the Department of Commerce, consolidating the Coast and Geodetic Survey and the Weather Bureau; (D). Coast and Geodetic Survey Act (33 U.S.C. Sec 883a - 883i); (E) Compact of Free Association Amendments Act (Public Law 108-117); (F) Tsunami Program Charter; (G) NOAA Strategic Plan; (H) National Tsunami Research Plan. OAR-PMEL 133; (I) National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program Charter and Rules of Procedures (2008): http://nthmp.tsunami.gov/; (J) Tsunami Program Strategic Plan (v2008) http://www.tsunami.noaa.gov/ ; (K) NOAA Report to Congress: How the Tsunami Forecast System will be integrated with other United States and Global Observation Systems and Networks (2008); (L) NOAA provides international guidance, capacity development, and information services for earthquakes and tsunamis around the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, South China Sea, and other connected seas under auspices of the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)/Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) . http://ioc3.unesco.org/itic/

YES 20%
1.2

Does the program address a specific and existing problem, interest, or need?

Explanation: The program addresses the risk from potential tsunami threats and the need for a more disaster-aware and prepared nation. Tsunamis are a significant natural hazard with great destructive potential and occur frequently in every seismically active ocean and sea. The program assesses the degree of hazard and issues early warnings of imminent tsunami threat and guidance when a potentially destructive tsunami is underway. NOAA investigates over 100 earthquakes each year for tsunami potential and issues, on average, 2 warnings per year. Today NOAA is active in over 28 U.S. states and territories, and is working with over 60 countries of the world. The program structure and activities prioritize coastal areas and communities where there is the highest known risk. Observations address the need to detect with high certainty when and where, and to predict with accuracy the duration and impacts. The program provides vital early warning guidance and forecasts that notify emergency managers and an educated public on the nature of event. The Program addresses the mitigation need including reaching out to the public and other agencies to improve education and preparedness before events occur. It is essential to collect and make available all relevant data and information, sustain multipurpose observation networks, and conduct research that delivers results that improve detection technologies, information and communication technology, forecasting and warning methods, and mitigation processes. The need to raise the preparedness of our coastal ocean communities and have tsunami-wise educated emergency managers and well-informed public is becoming more critical as the population density and economic investment increases along our coasts. According to the NOAA report, "Population Trends along the Coastal United States, 1980- 2008 (September 2004)," in 2003 approximately 53% of the U.S. population lived in coastal ocean communities and many communities are at risk for impacts from a destructive tsunami. The Tsunami Warning and Education Act mandates NOAA to "provide tsunami detection, forecasting, and warnings for the Pacific and Arctic Ocean regions and for the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico??"and "to improve and increase education and outreach activities." In vulnerable regions the Tsunami Program uses the best available science to address the following problems, interests, and needs: - Robust tsunami detection technologies - Available and freely accessible observation and historical event data. - Effective tsunami forecast and warning guidance for all U.S. coastlines 24x7 - Timely, accurate, and reliable notification to emergency managers and the public - Regional and local outreach and capacity building - Coordination of federal, state, tribal and local government agencies - Research results to improve understanding of threats, vulnerabilities, and predictive capabilities.

Evidence: (A) National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) Report "Tsunami Risk Reduction for the United States: A Framework for Action" a joint report of the Whitehouse Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction (SDR) and the United States Group on Earth Observations (USGEO) http://www.sdr.gov/ ; (B) Joint States/NOAA/USGS/FEMA/USGS publication "Developing Tsunami-Resilient Communities," ISBN 1-4020-3343-2 ; (C) National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Report. "U.S. States and Territories National Tsunami Hazard Assessment: Historical Record and Sources for Waves" http://nthmp.tsunami.gov/ ; (D) National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program Charter and Rules of Procedures (2008) http://nthmp.tsunami.gov/ ; (E) NOAA Tsunami Program Strategic Plan (2008).http://www.tsunami.noaa.gov/ ; (F) Government Accountability Office (GAO) "U.S. Tsunami Preparedness" Report 06-519.http://nthmp.tsunami.gov/GAO_report_d06519.pdf ; (G) Tsunami Program Charter ; (H) NOAA Strategic Plan ; (I) National Tsunami Research Plan. OAR-PMEL 133 ; (J) Tsunami Data at the NOAA National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/tsu.shtml ; (K) NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers operate under the auspices of the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) /Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission http://ioc3.unesco.org/itic/ (L) NOAA Report to Congress: How the Tsunami Forecast System will be Integrated with other United States and Global Observation Systems and Networks (2008).

YES 20%
1.3

Is the program designed so that it is not redundant or duplicative of any other Federal, state, local or private effort?

Explanation: NOAA's Tsunami Program is designed to integrate the unique NOAA capabilities required to provide the nation with a tsunami system for early warning, forecast, mitigation, research, and international coordination. No other Federal, State, local or private concern is designed to operate and maintain this system. NOAA's Program design and leadership role relative to other federal and state agencies is mandated under the Tsunami Warning and Education Act (PL 109-424). NOAA is the only official national provider of tsunami forecasts and warnings, watches, and advisories for the United States and its territories. NOAA is also a unique provider of global tsunami warning and educational services and host for the International Tsunami Information Center. The Program functions are complementary to, but not duplicative of, other federal, state, local, tribal, or private hazard warning and mitigation efforts. NOAA optimizes this coordination by leading the National Tsunami Hazards Mitigation Program. The Program makes optimal use of existing capacities operated by partners and builds on capabilities of other services. This design is consistent with the National Science and Technology Council report: "Tsunami Risk Reduction for the United States: A Framework for Action (2005)." The Program leverages existing NOAA capacities including weather field offices, notification infrastructure, data centers, water level networks, satellites, and research facilities The Program integrates the coastal management, marine service, data management, and research functions of NOAA with the mitigation and preparedness capabilities of the Federal Emergency Management Agency and state response organizations. The Program also combines NOAA's local earthquake data collection and analysis efforts with the extensive national and global earthquake networks of The United States Geologic Survey and the National Science Foundation. The International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC) builds capacity in coordination with aid agencies such as the Department of State's Office of Federal Disaster Assistance and US Agency for International Development. The Program also coordinates improvement projects in consultation with other agencies, academic institutions, and international partners.

Evidence: (A) Tsunami Warning and Education Act (Public Law 109-424); (B) NOAA Organization Chart; http://www.pco.noaa.gov/org/NOAA_Organization.htm ; (C) MOU between NOAA and USGS; (D) Tsunami Warning Services (NWS Policy Directive 10-7) http://www.weather.gov/directives/010/010.htm ; (E) National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program Charter and Rules of Procedures (2008) http://nthmp.tsunami.gov/ ; (G) NOAA Tsunami Program Strategic Plan (2008) http://www.tsunami.noaa.gov/ NOAA ; (H) NOAA global tsunami services under auspices of the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)/Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) http://ioc3.unesco.org/itic/ NOAA ; (I) Report to Congress: How the Tsunami Forecast System will be Integrated with other United States and Global Observation Systems and Networks (2008). ; (J) National Science and Technology Council Report "Tsunami Risk Reduction for the United States: A Framework for Action" ; (K) NOAA/USGS/FEMA publication "Developing Tsunami-Resilient Communities," ISBN 1-4020-3343-2; (L) NOAA/USGS/FEMA Report on the Modernization of FEMA Flood Maps. http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2006/1234/of2006-1234.pdf ; (M) USAID/DOS/NOAA "Tsunami Warning Center Reference Guide," ISBN 978-0-09742991-3-6 http://www.iotws.org/ ; (N) NOAA Coastal Community Resilience Guide http://www.iotws.org/ (O) Government Accountability Office (GAO) "U.S. Tsunami Preparedness".

YES 20%
1.4

Is the program design free of major flaws that would limit the program's effectiveness or efficiency?

Explanation: The program's effectiveness is benefitted by being centrally managed through the National Weather Service and being a matrix program drawing critical functions from across NOAA. Detection of tsunamis and related capabilities build on proven National Weather Service operations such as the National Data Buoy Center, field offices, and communications infrastructure. There are some opportunities for the program to improve efficiency through the co-location of Tsunami Warning Centers and Weather Forecast Offices. Integrated ocean observing and global sea level data are provided through the National Ocean Service (NOS). The tsunami forecast and warning bulletins originate in the NWS tsunami warning centers. Data management, mapping, and hazard assessments are coordinated through National Environmental Satellite and Data Information Service, National Geophysical Data Center. The research component occurs at relevant NOAA centers and laboratories, especially the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and through extramural partnerships with states and academic institutions. The National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) is a structural component to ensure effective and efficient extension at the community level. The Program's structure supports the international mandate for delivery of global warning services and capacity. The NOAA centers and offices as well as the NOAA-hosted International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC) work with Department of State to support policy and project coordination with the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission and World Meteorological Organization.

Evidence: (A) Tsunami Warning and Education Act (Public Law 109-424); (B) National Weather Service. Tsunami Policy Directives 10-7; (C) National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) Report "Tsunami Risk Reduction for the United States: A Framework for Action" http://www.sdr.gov/ ; (D) NOAA Organization Chart http://www.pco.noaa.gov/org/NOAA_Organization.htm ; (E) Government Accountability Office (GAO) "U.S. Tsunami Preparedness" NOAA Strategic Plan http://www.ppi.noaa.gov/pdfs/STRATEGIC%20PLAN/Strategic_Plan_2006_FINAL_04282005.pdf ; (F) National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program Charter and Rules of Procedures (2008). http://nthmp.tsunami.gov/ ; (G) NOAA Tsunami Program Charter and Strategic Plan (2008). http://www.tsunami.noaa.gov/ ; (H) NOAA Tsunami Warning and Information Centers operation under the auspices of the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) /Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) http://ioc3.unesco.org/itic/ ; (I) NOAA Report to Congress: How the Tsunami Forecast System will be Integrated with other United States and Global Observation Systems and Networks (2008).

YES 20%
1.5

Is the program design effectively targeted so that resources will address the program's purpose directly and will reach intended beneficiaries?

Explanation: The Tsunami Program design is effectively targeted so that resources provide early warnings and education when and where tsunami hazard potential is greatest. Beneficiaries include authorities for disaster, emergency, and meteorological services, key responders, and people in at-risk coastal areas surrounding tsunami source zones. There are no unintended subsidies, and resources are only available to the most cost-effective activities contributing to performance goals. The Program directs at least 27% of the appropriated funding towards mitigation and 8% towards research. The Program focuses on the highest-risk communities and coastal economies including large urban centers, sea ports, industries, critical infrastructure, and ecosystems. By design, NOAA monitors, assesses, and responds to evolving socio-economic changes and hazard exposure in all coastal states and territories to optimize tsunami risk reduction. The NOAA-led National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program coordinates federal financial contributions to state, local, and tribal stakeholders to ensure resources reach intended beneficiaries to sustain preparedness. For example, NOAA targets activities in the Pacific states of Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, and California, whose coastal zone counties in 2006 represented an exposure of over 1.2 million industrial establishments, employing 15.8 million people, and $1,870 million in Gross Domestic Product vulnerable to tsunami threat. Financial allocations have also been targeted to strengthen warning services and education in the Caribbean territories where exposure and hazard threat reflect high risk. Preparedness of coastal high risk communities and facilities are recognized through the TsunamiReady?? Program. NOAA operates and maintains a unique tsunami warning capability, but leverages all-hazards telecommunication and media systems to reach the public. The Program focuses investments on inundation hazards and research, integrates high-risk earthquake analysis from the USGS, and optimizes use of flood and loss information from FEMA. The Program is designed to supports education and capacity building through various elements including the International Tsunami Information Center, research and data centers, websites, and data portals. The Program targets internationally priorities through U.S. Department of State, working with intergovernmental agencies in areas of greatest national interest.

Evidence: (A) National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Report. "U.S. States and Territories National Tsunami Hazard Assessment: Historical Record and Sources for Waves" http://nthmp.tsunami.gov/ ; (B) NOAA National Geophysical Data Center Historical Tsunami Database http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/tsu_db.shtml ; (C) Spatial Trends in Coastal Zone Economics http://marineeconomics.noaa.gov/socioeconomics/czcounties/cz_pop_housing/cz_county_mainpage.html including Coastal Economics Program http://noep.mbari.org/ and coastal and ocean resource economics maps http://egisws01.nos.noaa.gov/website/stics/census20000mapping/viewer.htm; (D) Map of coastal Nuclear Power Reactor Sites http:///www.nrc.gov/ . State Energy Profiles, Energy Information Administration http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/state/ Oil & Gas/Electric Power Maps and Atlases http://www.mapsearch.com/paper-products.html; (E) NOAA TsunamiReady?? community recognition program promoting planning and education, http://www.tsunamiready.noaa.gov/ ; (F) National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program partnership of Federal agencies, states and communities http://nthmp.tsunami.gov/; (G) Tsunami Program Charter; (H) NOAA Program, Planning, Budgeting, and Execution System, NOAA Administrative Order NAO 216-108 http://www.corporateservices.noaa.gov/~ames/NAOs/Chap_216/naos_216_108.html ; (I) NOAA Business Operations Manual. http://www.ppi.noaa.gov/pdfs/BOM_v3.3.pdf ; (J) National Center for Tsunami Research http://nctr.pmel.noaa.gov/ ; (K) NOAA-hosted International Tsunami Information Center http://ioc3.unesco.org/itic/ ; (L) Tsunami Warning Centers http://www.prh.noaa.gov/ptwc/ and http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/ ; (M) National Data Buoy Center http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov ; National Geophysical Data Center http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/ ; International Tsunami Training Institute http://www.extension.washington.edu/ext/certificates/tsp/tsp_gen.asp/ ; (N) NOAA National Weather Service Policy Directive 10-7. http://www.weather.gov/directives/sym/pd01007curr.pdf ; (O) NOAA Strategic Plan http://www.ppi.noaa.gov/pdfs/STRATEGIC%20PLAN/Strategic_Plan_2006_FINAL_04282005.pdf/ : (P) NOAA Tsunami Program Strategic Plan 2008; (Q) National Science & Technology Council, Subcommittee for Disaster Reduction and United States Group on Earth Observations "Framework for Tsunami Risk Reduction" http://www.sdr.gov/Tsunami%20Risk%20Reduction%20for%20the%20US%20-%20A%20Framework%20for%20Action%202005-12-22.pdf/ ; ( R) NOAA is Regional Tsunami Watch Provider (RTWP) under international agreements and auspices of the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) /Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) http://www.ioc-tsunami.org/ ; (S) NOAA International Tsunami Information Center http://ioc3.unesco.org/itic/

YES 20%
Section 1 - Program Purpose & Design Score 100%
Section 2 - Strategic Planning
Number Question Answer Score
2.1

Does the program have a limited number of specific long-term performance measures that focus on outcomes and meaningfully reflect the purpose of the program?

Explanation: The purpose of the Tsunami Program is to operate a tsunami warning, mitigation, and research program for all coastal ocean areas of the United States and its territories, to minimize disruption to at-risk communities. The Tsunami Program has five long-term measures that focus on outcomes supporting the Program purpose.

Evidence: (A) The Tsunami Program Strategic Plan Provides long-term program vision, outcomes and performance measures for the Tsunami Program; (B) The Annual Tsunami Budget Submission Narrative Provides a table of Tsunami Program Goals and Performance Measures; (C) NOAA Coastal Community Resilience Guide. The CCR guide aims to address coastal hazards and reduce risks to vulnerable communities. http://www.iotws.org/ev_en.php?ID=2897_201&ID2=DO_TOPIC ; (E) Joint States/NOAA/USGS/FEMA/USGS publication "Developing Tsunami-Resilient Communities," ISBN 1-4020-3343-2.

YES 12%
2.2

Does the program have ambitious targets and timeframes for its long-term measures?

Explanation: The Tsunami Program has reasonably ambitious targets and timeframes for the long term measures. These targets and timeframes will track and improve the products and services provided by the Program allowing emergency managers, community officials, and the public to make better informed decisions. One example is the aggressive long-term measure "Number of TsunamiReady?? Communities in High Hazard Areas." This is an indication of the nation's readiness and resilience, and long-term commitment to disaster prevention and mitigation in coastal communities. The target is ambitious as the program is voluntary. The Program works to educate communities in high hazard coastal regions on the dangers associated with tsunamis. Ultimately however, each community must make the determination and expend the necessary resources to become a recognized s TsunamiReady??.

Evidence: (A) The Tsunami Program Strategic Plan Provides long-term program vision, outcomes and performance measures for the Tsunami Program; (B) The Annual Tsunami Budget Submission Narrative Provides a table of Tsunami Program Goals and Performance Measures; (C ) National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Report. "U.S. States and Territories National Tsunami Hazard Assessment: Historical Record and Sources for Waves" Examines historical and geological records to assess the venerability of American coastlines to tsunami hazards

YES 12%
2.3

Does the program have a limited number of specific annual performance measures that can demonstrate progress toward achieving the program's long-term goals?

Explanation: The Program has four annual output performance measure and three annual efficiency measures, all contributing to support the Program's long-term performance measures. The output measures demonstrate progress is being achieved towards the long term program goal through making highly reliable data available. The annual efficiency measures demonstrate progress toward long term goals for improving tsunami research, warning, and mitigation.

Evidence: (A) Tsunami Program Strategic Plan Provides long-term program vision, outcomes and performance measures for the Tsunami Program; (B) Tsunami annual performance measures Tsunami Annual Operating Plan (AOP) Tracks annual performance measures and links annual deliverables with milestones and budgeting for the current year. ( C)The AOP performance status is reported quarterly to NOAA management Tsunami Quarterly Quad Chart Provides quarterly project status to NOAA management on financial, schedule, performance and any tsunami Program issues

YES 12%
2.4

Does the program have baselines and ambitious targets for its annual measures?

Explanation: The Tsunami Program has baselines and established reasonably ambitious targets and timeframes for its annual measures. Data for baselines and outcome measures, such as those for elapsed time and data, have been maintained and developed for over a decade.

Evidence: (A) Tsunami Program Strategic Plan Provides long-term program vision, outcomes and performance measures for the Tsunami Program; (B) Tsunami annual performance measures Tsunami Annual Operating Plan (AOP) Tracks annual performance measures and links annual deliverables with milestones and budgeting for the current year. ( C)The AOP performance status is reported quarterly to NOAA management Tsunami Quarterly Quad Chart Provides quarterly project status to NOAA management on financial, schedule, performance and any tsunami Program issues

YES 12%
2.5

Do all partners (including grantees, sub-grantees, contractors, cost-sharing partners, and other government partners) commit to and work toward the annual and/or long-term goals of the program?

Explanation: The goals of the Tsunami Program can only be achieved through collaborative efforts with multiple federal, state, local, and tribal partners. Although the specific missions of each partner may differ from NOAA's tsunami mission, each contributes to achieving the NOAA Tsunami Program vision. A portion of the strategic plan and performance measurement development was devoted to collecting partner input and commitment toward long-term goals. The Tsunami Program leads and works with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), a partnership among NOAA, the United States Geological Survey, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the National Science Foundation, and all 28 coastal ocean states and territories to achieve its long-term goals. The NTHMP partners receive funding through both contract and grant mechanisms that require applicants show contributions to program strategic outcomes by identifying performance indices and demonstrating past performance. In addition, both grants and contracts have specific deliverables and performance measures that relate to and support the outcomes of the program. Contractor and grant performance is tracked through quarterly status reports and deliverables. All of the performance measures require support from the Program's partners. The commitments of government partners to work toward both annual and long-term goals are accomplished through joint working groups at the International, national, and regional level.

Evidence: (A) Tsunami Program Strategic Plan Provides long-term program vision, outcomes and performance measures for the Tsunami Program FY09-13; (B) Program Operating Plan (POP) Links performance goals and budgetary measures for the five year planning cycle. The POP is reported annually to NOAA financial management and the CFO council of NOAA; ( C) National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) Report "Tsunami Risk Reduction for the United States: A Framework for Action" contains recommendations for roles and responsibilities throughout the report on strengthening and improving the national preparedness for tsunamis; (D) National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Implementation Plan (E) National Tsunami Research Plan.

YES 12%
2.6

Are independent evaluations of sufficient scope and quality conducted on a regular basis or as needed to support program improvements and evaluate effectiveness and relevance to the problem, interest, or need?

Explanation: The Tsunami Program has undergone several routine and rigorous independent evaluations since its formation in 2005. In 2005, the White House Subcommittee for Disaster Reduction (SDR) and U.S. Group on Earth Observations evaluated the capabilities of federal agencies contributing to the national reduction of tsunami risk. The result was a National Science and Technology Report that recommended a Framework for Tsunami Risk Reduction for the United States be adopted as a basis for the NOAA Program's organizational structure and objectives. This review was a comprehensive review of what would constitute an efficient and effective Program that focused on five critical elements: Hazard Assessment, Warning Guidance, Mitigation, Research, and International Coordination. The report identified NOAA as well positioned to take the lead integrating the tsunami forecasting system, mitigation, research, and international coordination. In 2006, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) audited the U.S. level of tsunami preparedness, and issued a report focusing on the collaboration between federal and state partners. In May 2007, NOAA initiated an independent review of the NTHMP to ensure contributions of NOAA and its partners were effectively aligned to meet long-term strategic objectives of the NTHMP. This review was in response to GAO report recommendations, and addressed a cross-section of program elements that included Hazard Assessment, Warning Guidance, Mitigation, and Research. Results of the review were coordinated among federal and state partners and a list of recommendations was published January 2008. Lastly, the NOAA Tsunami Program is currently undergoing an extensive 18 month review by the Ocean Studies Board of the National Academy of Sciences. This review, scheduled for completion in 2010 is focusing on the tsunami detection, forecast, and warning program to assess further modernization needs and operational issues.

Evidence: (A) Tsunami Program Strategic Plan Provides long-term program vision, outcomes and performance measures for the Tsunami Program FY09-13; (B) Program Operating Plan (POP) Links performance goals and budgetary measures for the five year planning cycle. The POP is reported annually to NOAA financial management and the CFO council of NOAA; ( C) National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) Report "Tsunami Risk Reduction for the United States: A Framework for Action" a joint report of the Whitehouse Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction (SDR) and the United States Group on Earth Observations (USGEO) outlining the strategy for reducing the United States tsunami risk. http://www.sdr.gov/ ; (D) National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NHMP) 5-year review Report Assess tsunami hazards; (E) Government Accountability Office (GAO) "U.S. Tsunami Preparednes

YES 12%
2.7

Are Budget requests explicitly tied to accomplishment of the annual and long-term performance goals, and are the resource needs presented in a complete and transparent manner in the program's budget?

Explanation: The Program uses a formalized and standardized planning, programming, budgeting, and execution process to guide research and management activities through an annual review of priorities and budget allocations to ensure the Program is on track to meet its strategic objectives. As part of this standardized process, the Program undergoes an annual strategic planning looking out 3-10 years and identifying future requirements and trends that will require re-targeting resources. The guidance from the planning phase forms the creation of the annual budget during the programming and budgeting phases. As the budget moves into the execution phase, an Annual Operating Plan (AOP) ties all resources to milestones, which in turn are linked to performance measures. The completion of the milestones is tracked throughout the year and reported quarterly. All this information is housed in a web-enabled database system known as the electronic AOP that ensures consistency and accountability. This process helps to guide research and programmatic activities through an annual review of priorities and budget allocations to ensure progress in meeting strategic objectives. The annual budget requests include the full cost of attaining performance goals and how programmatic increases affected performance. Budget and performance data are integrated and the impact of funding decisions on performance is shown. The NOAA budget request identifies performance goals and identifies how these performance goals are influenced by different funding strategies.

Evidence: (A) Annual Tsunami Budget Submission Narrative Provides a table of Tsunami Program Goals and Performance Measures FY09-13 Program Operating Plan (POP) The POP is reported annually to NOAA financial management and the CFO council of NOAA (B) National Tsunami Research Plan. OAR-PMEL 133.; (C ) National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program Charter and Rules of Procedures (2008) http://nthmp.tsunami.gov/ ; (E) NOAA Tsunami Program Strategic Plan (2008). Provides long-term program vision, outcomes and performance measures for the Tsunami Program http://www.tsunami.noaa.gov/

YES 12%
2.8

Has the program taken meaningful steps to correct its strategic planning deficiencies?

Explanation: The Program has taken steps to address strategic deficiencies in response to the catastrophic Indian Ocean tsunami and a number of studies by independent review groups. The process for developing the NOAA Tsunami Strategic Plan was to conduct an internal assessment of the Program's strengths and weaknesses. Some of the strengths identified during this process include: diversity and intensity of collaboration among program members and partners, high quality data measurements and dissemination network (sea level, seismic, bathymetry, historical database, DART??) and one-hundred years of shared experience in tsunami warning operations, research and data archiving. Some deficiencies identified include: too many activities and projects cause disjointed goals and a lack of standards with data, products, and websites. In addition, the program reviewed the GAO and Sub-Committee for Disaster Reduction Reports, NWS Service Assessments, and input from our Federal and state partners to further identify strategic deficiencies. The program aligned the Strategic Plan with the Tsunami Warning and Education Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-424), which provides clear guidance on the Program's mission, objectives, and design. The result is a comprehensive strategic plan that describes the program for the next ten years, and effective strategies to achieve the desired outcomes. The program conducts annual internal assessments to determine its gaps and alternatives to meet the goals defined by the SDR. In 2006, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) audited the U.S. level of Tsunami Preparedness, and issued a report that focused on the collaboration between Federal and state Partners. The GAO determined that although the collaboration between the partners was strong, there were still some challenges that needed to be addressed. As a result of their review the GAO produced 6 recommendations for NOAA's Tsunami Program to undertake. The Program has taken meaningful steps to improve strategic planning based on the recommendations of the GAO.

Evidence: (A) Tsunami Program Strategic Plan Provides long-term program vision, outcomes, and performance measures for the Tsunami Program; (B) FY09-13 Program Operating Plan; ( C ) Hazard Mitigation Program (NHMP) 5-year review; (D) National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) Report "Tsunami Risk Reduction for the United States: A Framework for Action" http://www.sdr.gov/ ; (E) Government Accountability Office (GAO) "U.S. Tsunami Preparedness" thmp.tsunami.gov/GAO_report_d06519.pdf and NOAA responses to the report.

YES 12%
Section 2 - Strategic Planning Score 100%
Section 3 - Program Management
Number Question Answer Score
3.1

Does the agency regularly collect timely and credible performance information, including information from key program partners, and use it to manage the program and improve performance?

Explanation: The Tsunami Program collects and reports on performance information including information from key partners and uses the information to improve program performance. Annual and long-term performance measures are used by managers to set priorities for research in developing new forecast and warning, developing improved educational tools, setting priorities for grants and contracts, and to plan, implement and assess ongoing improvements to overall Program performance. Credible performance information such as warning accuracy and geographic accuracy of warnings are evaluated to ensure Program effectiveness. The data from measures help managers evaluate the effectiveness of the warning process and indicate to program managers the direction of future research and modeling activities. Performance measure information associated with data availability and costs allow program managers to work with partners such as the NOAA Marine Transportation Services (MTS) Program for the delivery of water level gauge data and the United States Geologic Survey (USGS) for the delivery of seismic data to ensure critical data is available and costs are controlled. Contracts, such as those for preparedness, operational system support and marine services, and interagency capacity building, are handled in accordance with Federal Acquisition Regulations (FAR) and require periodic reports on goals and milestones. Based on these regular reporting requirements, the Program monitors program partners' performance and takes corrective action, including redirection of funding or shifting of personnel and other resources or schedules as necessary.

Evidence: (A) Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR). http://arnet.gov/far; (B) Navigational Services PART Measure: /omb/expectmore/detail/10001020.2006.html.; (C) U.S.G.S. Hazards Program PART Measure /omb/expectmore/detail/10001080.2003.html.

YES 14%
3.2

Are Federal managers and program partners (including grantees, sub-grantees, contractors, cost-sharing partners, and other government partners) held accountable for cost, schedule and performance results?

Explanation: Federal managers are located in separate NOAA Line Offices with the National Weather Service serving as the lead office. Managers have performance plans that include quantifiable performance measures and annual milestones tied to the program goals. Each year the Tsunami Program Manager is accountable to provide long term Program plans, performance-based program plans, and budgets to NOAA Management. The Program Manager is accountable to the NOAA Observing Systems Council, chaired by Assistant Administrators, and reports annually on performance of Program Major Projects and system investments, in compliance with NOAA Business Operations Manual and associated guidelines. The Tsunami Program maintains accountability for partners such as those that make up the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) and their performance by a number of Federal and NOAA specific contracting and grants requirements. For contractors, the Government uses firm-fixed price and performance based task orders and contracts. In addition, contractors are held accountable for performance by compliance with terms and conditions of the contracts and their ability to meet delivery schedules. Grants are adhered to by procedures instituted by the NOAA Grants Office via Grants Online, such as 6-month performance/progress reviews. Grant recipients must account for cost, schedule, and performance results as part of their reporting requirements for associated quarterly, annual, and final performance reports. If contractors and grant recipients do not perform to requirements, penalty clauses are enforced.

Evidence: (A) Department of Commerce Grants Manual. http://www.seagrant.noaa.gov/greenbook/cga_manual.pdf ; (B) Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) http://arnet.gov/far.; (C) NOAA Business Operations Manual www.ppi.noaa.gov/pdfs/BOM_v3.3.pd

YES 14%
3.3

Are funds (Federal and partners') obligated in a timely manner, spent for the intended purpose and accurately reported?

Explanation: Funds are obligated for the purposes intended as prescribed by the NOAA Business Operations Manual (BOM) and by the Department of Commerce Grants Manual. Program funds are spent for the intended purpose as directed by annual spending plans developed and based on the appropriation of funds through the Federal Budget Process and enacted by Congress. Funds are allocated, consistent with the appropriations, through a formalized process including the prioritization of Program activities. In excess of 99% of the Program funds have been obligated by the Program for FY05 through FY07. Monthly spend plans are developed based on the Congressional appropriation and in consultation with NOAA and the Tsunami Program Manager. Budget Operating Plans are developed and entered into the NOAA financial system and the program execution is tracked on a monthly basis to monitor actual and planned obligations and to ensure timely expenditure of funds. If a monthly variance from the plan occurs, program managers take necessary corrective actions. In addition to monthly tracking, a quarterly review is conducted within NOAA and presented to the Deputy Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere.

Evidence: (A) NOAA Business Operations Manual www.ppi.noaa.gov/pdfs/BOM_v3.3.pdf ; (B) NOAA FY05-07 End of Year Financial Reports Report ; (C) Department of Commerce Department of Commerce Grants Manual http://www.seagrant.noaa.gov/greenbook/cga_manual.pdf

YES 14%
3.4

Does the program have procedures (e.g. competitive sourcing/cost comparisons, IT improvements, appropriate incentives) to measure and achieve efficiencies and cost effectiveness in program execution?

Explanation: The Tsunami Program has some procedures in place to measure and achieve efficiencies and cost effectiveness, but operates redundant Tsunami Warning Centers that are not co-located with weather forecast offices. However, the program pools resources and collaborates on projects involving multiple entities, both within NOAA or externally. Tsunami detection system contracts are awarded on a competitive basis to ensure cost-effectiveness. The program also has annual efficiency performance measures with established baselines in place to monitor operational cost effectiveness. One of three efficiency measures is to assure cost efficiency and effectiveness in the maintenance and operation of the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART??) station network.Operational, data management, and contractual strategies along with technological improvements will allow the network's tsunami warning data return rate to stay at a high level of operational readiness without realizing significant budget requirements to keep pace with material and labor inflation. These measures are to ensure the cost effective maintenance of a multi-year national investment in improved tsunami detection capabilities and effective research and development. Another measure assesses cost efficiency and effectiveness in the operations and maintenance for archiving and distribution of historical tsunami information. A single, integrated archive of historical data is essential for optimization of forecast and warning, hazard and risk mitigation, and research to improve modeling and understanding of tsunamis. Historical data provides the ability to assess rapidly potential tsunamigenic events based on past occurrences, conduct tsunami and water-level related research, provides input for improved modeling and forecasts, and enables analysis of actual events compared to predicted tsunami behaviors. The Program realizes cost efficiencies through sharing of the essential hardware, software, and infrastructure necessary for data management and delivery by utilizing the National Data Centers. The Program also realizes efficiencies in effective transmission of observational data by minimizing transmission duplication to only that necessary to support operational forecasts and warnings and continuity of operations requirements. The Program realizes additional efficiencies through effective use of the archive, thereby eliminating duplication of data storage and associated costs at the operational and research centers. The program uses competitive sourcing to provide the "best value" to the government for cost, schedule and technical performance for the contracted services. Incentive-based contracts are also used to encourage the contractor to improve cost, schedule, and technical performance during the contract execution cycle. Performance measures are reviewed by managers during monthly, quarterly and annual reviews to evaluate system performance and when needed develop plans to correct or improve the measures for efficient delivery of tsunami services.

Evidence: Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) http://arnet.gov/far ; (B) NOAA Acquisition Management Division Manual Address NOAA-specific acquisition guidelines; (C) Tsunami Annual Operating Plan (AOP); (D) NOAA Annual Operating Plan DOC FY06 http://www.osec.doc.gov/bmi/budget/06APP/NOAA06APP.

YES 14%
3.5

Does the program collaborate and coordinate effectively with related programs?

Explanation: The program is designed to collaborate effectively with partners. The Tsunami Program depends on several International, Federal, state, local, public and private partnerships. A key Federal partner is the United States Geological Survey (USGS), which maintains a high quality authoritative seismic network accessed in real time by the Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs). Resources from Department of State, including USAID and Office of Federal Disaster Assistance pool resources in training, community resilience education and technology transfer for high risk areas of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. The Tsunami Program also hosts and manages the International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC), for the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization's Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (UNESCO/IOC). The coordination with the IOC has facilitated tsunami hazard assessment, mitigation planning and warning system implementation in the countries surrounding the Indian Ocean since the Sumatra tsunami in December of 2004. The National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program is a collaborative program between Federal, State, local, and tribal governments that coordinates mitigation and education campaigns in vulnerable coastal ocean communities. The collaboration between the NOAA program and other programs promotes effective improvement to community outreach, integrates preparedness and education programs into ongoing local community hazard warning and emergency management activities, and promotes risk managed coastal zone management. Examples of efficient and innovative collaboration are joint studies of NOAA, USGS and FEMA to advance probabilistic hazard flood maps of the most at-risk coastal communities. FEMA is also sharing expertise in structural mitigation by leveraging resources to develop guidelines and tools for evacuation and estimation of hazard loss. NOAA is providing critical collection and quality control of hazard event data and inundation maps that will improve the reliability and use of FEMA products and services.

Evidence: (A) Memorandum of Understanding between National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and U.S. Geological Survey http://www.weather.gov/os/water/resources/NOAA-USGS_MOU2-05.pdf ; (B) IOC Resolution XXIII-15 June 2005 ioc3.unesco.org/indotsunami/IOC23/resolution13.htm ; (C) Government Accountability Office (GAO) "U.S. Tsunami Preparedness" nthmp.tsunami.gov/GAO_report_d06519.pdf ; (D) National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) Report "Tsunami Risk Reduction for the United States: A Framework for Action" digital.library.unt.edu/govdocs/crs//data/2006/upl-meta-crs-9378/meta-crs-9378.ocr

YES 14%
3.6

Does the program use strong financial management practices?

Explanation: The Tsunami Program received a clean audit opinion and has no material internal weaknesses reported by the auditors, and is in compliance with laws and regulations related to financial management. The Tsunami program follows prescribed Department of Commerce financial management and accounting policies, procedures, controls and uses the Commerce Administrative and Management System along with Commerce Business Systems (CBS) for its financial management. CBS is compliant with the Federal Financial Management Improvement Act and permits daily reviews of financial transactions. The program develops monthly, quarterly, and annual budgets, and conducts regular resource and capital asset reviews to monitor the status of projects, operating plans, and project plans.

Evidence: (A) Commerce Administrative Management System (CAMS) http://www.nist.gov/admin/cams_external/cams_index.html ;(B) Commerce Business Systems (CBS) https://cpcs.rdc.noaa.gov/overview.html ; (C) DOC FY06 Performance and Accountability Report www.osec.doc.gov/bmi/Budget/FY06PARlink.htm

YES 14%
3.7

Has the program taken meaningful steps to address its management deficiencies?

Explanation: The Tsunami Program has a reasonably-well designed and functioning matrix managed approach to long term planning, programming, budgeting, and execution. A distributed management approach is used successfully to address annual and short-term execution for operations, research, and services. While both approaches perform effectively, further steps are being taken to address deficits in linking the matrix and distributed efforts through governance arrangements. NOAA Administrative Order (NAO) 216-111, Program Management, and NAO 216-108, Requirements Management, requires NOAA to continually and systematically assess the management of programs to ensure NOAA programs meet requirements and are executed successfully. A 2006 Government Accountability Office (GAO) report on Tsunami preparedness made management recommendations particularly in regards to strategic plans. The Program has developed a Tsunami Program Strategic Plan and has taken additional actions to address the GAO recommendations (see Q2.8). Following the December 26, 2004, Sumatra Tsunami in the Indian Ocean an NWS management review was conducted to asses the Tsunami Program: National Weather Service (NWS) Policy Directive 10-7 "Tsunami Warning Services" on May 3, 2007. The Policy Directive clarified management responsibilities in order for the Tsunami Program to execute effectively tactical decisions related to the detection, issuance, and dissemination of advisories, bulletins, and warning of tsunami events. From August to November of 2007, a Program Management Review (PMR) was conducted on the Tsunami Program. While no major deficiencies were noted in the PMR, the PRM recommended strengthening the management of the Tsunami Program by aligning the Tsunami Program Manager within the NWS, Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services.

Evidence: (A) National Weather Service Policy Direct 10-7: "Tsunami Warning Services" www.weather.gov/directives/sym/pd01007curr.pdf ; (B) NOAA Administrative Orders 216-108 and 216-111 www.corporateservices.noaa.gov/~ames/NAOs/Chap_216/216-111.pdf www.corporateservices.noaa.gov/~ames/NAOs/Chap_216/216-108.pdf ; (C) Government Accountability Office (GAO) "U.S. Tsunami Preparedness" Report States that federal and state partners collaborate to help communities reduce potential impacts, but significant challenges remain (page 39-45); (D) Tsunami Program Management Review Team Charter The Team will review and evaluate the current management needs of NOAA and the NWS, as well as primary stakeholders, and make specific recommendations for meeting the needs; (E) Tsunami Program Management Review Recommendations, November 29, 2007

YES 14%
Section 3 - Program Management Score 100%
Section 4 - Program Results/Accountability
Number Question Answer Score
4.1

Has the program demonstrated adequate progress in achieving its long-term performance goals?

Explanation: The Tsunami Program has made substantial progress in achieving the long term outcome performance goals for all coastal ocean areas of the United States and its territories. For example, the long term goal of "Improved Geographic Accuracy of Tsunami Warning" exceeded targets in FY06 and FY07. The FY07 actual demonstrates a 25% improvement in geographic accuracy from the FY05 baseline and exceeded the FY07 goal by 6%. In 2008, NOAA reported to Congress progress in achieving long term performance by integrating the tsunami forecast system with other United States and global ocean and coastal observation systems.

Evidence: (A) Tsunami Program Strategic Plan Provides long-term program vision, outcomes, and performance measures for the Tsunami Program; (B) Annual Tsunami Budget Submission Narrative Provides a table of Tsunami Program Goals and Performance Measures; ( C) National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Implementation Plan; (D) Tsunami Annual Operating Plan (AOP) Tracks annual performance measures and links annual deliverables with milestones and budgeting for the current year; (E) The AOP performance status is reported quarterly to NOAA management; (F) UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) Resolutions establishing the global and regional tsunami warning systems-XXIV-13 (Coordination Groups) and XXIV-14 (Tsunamis and Other Ocean Hazards) Resolutions [June 2007], Resolution XXIII-12 Indian Ocean Region [June 2006], Resolution XXIII-13 Caribbean and Adjacent Regions [June 2006], Resolution XXIII-14 North-east Atlantic Mediterranean Region [June 2006] confirmed through the Dept. of State the role of NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers and the International Tsunami Information Center to provide global and regional Services; (G)) NOAA Report to Congress: How the Tsunami Forecast System will be Integrated with other United States and Global Observation Systems and Networks (2008)

LARGE EXTENT 13%
4.2

Does the program (including program partners) achieve its annual performance goals?

Explanation: The Tsunami Program has consistently achieved its annual performance measures, although years 2001 through 2006 had less than ambitious targets. For example, the performance goal for "Elapsed Time from Earthquake to Tsunami Message Product Issuance for Regional Events" data demonstrates consistent achievement of the goal by the TWCs. The performance targets have been exceeded each year since being established in 2000 with an actual performance measure of 7.1 minutes in FY07 compared to a target of 10.0 minutes.

Evidence: (A) Annual Tsunami Budget Submission Narrative Provides a table of Tsunami Program Goals and Performance Measures; ( B) National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Implementation Plan; (C) Tsunami Annual Operating Plan (AOP) Tracks annual performance measures and links annual deliverables with milestones and budgeting for the current year; (D) The AOP performance status is reported quarterly to NOAA management

YES 20%
4.3

Does the program demonstrate improved efficiencies or cost effectiveness in achieving program goals each year?

Explanation: The Tsunami Program has demonstrated improved its efficiency and cost effectiveness by establishing and meeting the program's efficiency goals. This includes the utilization of annual efficiency measures to assess whether the program continues to avoid unnecessary costs over time. On the positive side, the Program cuts costs by using sound administrative and contractual procedures, leveraging resources with other federal agencies, state organizations, and academic institutions, and utilizing competitive sourcing. However, it is not clear that the current office structure is optimized.

Evidence: (A) Annual Tsunami Budget Submission Narrative Provides a table of Tsunami Program Goals and Performance Measures; (B) National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Implementation Plan; (C) Tsunami Annual Operating Plan (AOP) Tracks annual performance measures and links annual deliverables with milestones and budgeting for the current year; (D) The AOP performance status is reported quarterly to NOAA management

LARGE EXTENT 13%
4.4

Does the performance of this program compare favorably to other programs, including government, private, etc., with similar purpose and goals?

Explanation: The Tsunami Program compares favorably to other Federal programs detecting natural hazards, providing mitigation and research services, and building capacity globally. The Tsunami Program cuts across multiple agency missions from meteorology and oceanography to geology and spans from coastal regions to deepest ocean. The performance of the Tsunami Program compares favorably with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Hazards Program and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hydrology Program. Like the Hazards Program and the Hydrology Program, the Tsunami Program must have robust continuously operating detection and data processing networks and the warnings and forecasts must be issued in an accurate and timely manner. The programs all provide services to emergency managers and support research to improve services.

Evidence: (A) Hydrology Program Part web link provides information on the Program purpose and performance and results. /omb/expectmore/detail/10009000.2007.html ; (B) USGS Hazards Program PART web link provides information on the Program purpose and performance and results. /omb/expectmore/detail/10001080.2003.html

YES 20%
4.5

Do independent evaluations of sufficient scope and quality indicate that the program is effective and achieving results?

Explanation: The Program is both effective and achieving its results. There are a number of independent evaluations over the past 4 years that demonstrate the Programs results and provide recommendations for improvements in the Program. The National Academy of the Sciences is currently conducting an 18 month review of the Program. P.L. 109-424 requires NOAA to transmit a report containing the National Academy of Sciences' recommendations, and a timetable with costs for implementing the recommendations to Congress. In 2005, the White House Subcommittee for Disaster Reduction (SDR) evaluated the program. The SDR produced a Framework for Tsunami Risk Reduction for the United States that was adopted as a basis for the program's organizational structure and objectives. The SDR focused on the successful development of tsunami-resilient communities by focusing on seven areas: Determining the Threat, Preparedness, Timely and Effective Warnings, Mitigation, Public Outreach and Communication, Research, and International Coordination. In 2006, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) audited the U.S. level of Tsunami Preparedness, and issued a report that focused on the collaboration between federal and state partners. In May 2007, NOAA initiated an independent review by a panel of respected tsunami scientists of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to ensure contributions of NOAA and its partners where effectively aligned to meet long-term strategic objectives of the NTHMP.

Evidence: (A) Tsunami Warning and Education Act (Public Law 109-424; (B) National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Report "U.S. States and Territories National Tsunami Hazard Assessment: Historical Record and Sources for Waves"; (C) National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) Report "Tsunami Risk Reduction for the United States: A Framework for Action"; (D) Government Accountability Office (GAO) "U.S. Tsunami Preparedness" Federal and state partners collaborate to help communities reduce potential impacts

YES 20%
Section 4 - Program Results/Accountability Score 87%


Last updated: 09062008.2008SPR